WHO ARE THE VOTERS WHO POTENTIALLY ELECTED BOLSONARO AND LULA?
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Tipo de documento: | preprint |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | SciELO Preprints |
Texto Completo: | https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/6789 |
Resumo: | Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, from the Workers' Party (PT), was barred from running for the presidency in 2018 by the electoral court. Four years later, Lula won the presidential elections. The common element between both elections is the main opponent: Jair Bolsonaro. The 2022 election was highly contested, and it is possible that so-called "volatile" voters played a decisive role. Those who initially would have voted for Lula if he had been a candidate and later chose Bolsonaro in 2018 may have influenced the outcome of the fiercely contested 2022 election. This study focuses on understanding who these "bolsolulistas" are and examining their attributes and thoughts. We seek answers using post-election survey data from 2018, which investigated both the vote and attitudes towards Lula, in case his candidacy was not legally barred. Additionally, we compare these results with survey data from 2022. We find that bolsolulistas share significant similarities with voters who chose Bolsonaro in both 2018 and 2022, especially regarding religion. However, they are less distrustful of political parties, similar to voters of Lula in 2022. Furthermore, they tend to position themselves ideologically in the center and favor the presence of a strong leader who can solve problems, even if it means acting outside the law. |
id |
SCI-1_f72918d7629001a3cf45bdf9c5b8a2f7 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:ops.preprints.scielo.org:preprint/6789 |
network_acronym_str |
SCI-1 |
network_name_str |
SciELO Preprints |
repository_id_str |
|
spelling |
WHO ARE THE VOTERS WHO POTENTIALLY ELECTED BOLSONARO AND LULA?QUEM SÃO OS ELEITORES QUE POSSIVELMENTE ELEGERAM BOLSONARO E LULA?bolsolulistaelectionsbolsonarismlullisminstitutional distrustbolsolulistaeleiçõesbolsonarismolulismodesconfiança institucionalLuis Inácio Lula da Silva, from the Workers' Party (PT), was barred from running for the presidency in 2018 by the electoral court. Four years later, Lula won the presidential elections. The common element between both elections is the main opponent: Jair Bolsonaro. The 2022 election was highly contested, and it is possible that so-called "volatile" voters played a decisive role. Those who initially would have voted for Lula if he had been a candidate and later chose Bolsonaro in 2018 may have influenced the outcome of the fiercely contested 2022 election. This study focuses on understanding who these "bolsolulistas" are and examining their attributes and thoughts. We seek answers using post-election survey data from 2018, which investigated both the vote and attitudes towards Lula, in case his candidacy was not legally barred. Additionally, we compare these results with survey data from 2022. We find that bolsolulistas share significant similarities with voters who chose Bolsonaro in both 2018 and 2022, especially regarding religion. However, they are less distrustful of political parties, similar to voters of Lula in 2022. Furthermore, they tend to position themselves ideologically in the center and favor the presence of a strong leader who can solve problems, even if it means acting outside the law.Luís Inácio Lula da Silva, do Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), foi impedido pela justiça eleitoral de concorrer à presidência em 2018. Quatro anos mais tarde, Lula venceu as eleições presidenciais. O elemento comum entre ambos os pleitos é o principal adversário: Jair Bolsonaro. A eleição de 2022 foi altamente disputada, e é possível que eleitores considerados "voláteis" tenham tido um papel decisivo. Aqueles que inicialmente votariam em Lula se ele fosse candidato e, posteriormente, optaram por Bolsonaro em 2018, podem ter influenciado o resultado do disputado pleito de 2022. Este estudo concentra-se em compreender quem são esses "bolsolulistas" e examinar seus atributos e pensamentos. Buscamos respostas utilizando dados de pesquisas pós-eleitorais de 2018, que investigaram tanto o voto quanto as atitudes em relação a Lula, no caso de sua candidatura não ser impedida legalmente. Além disso, comparamos esses resultados com dados de pesquisa de 2022. Descobrimos que os bolsolulistas apresentam semelhanças significativas com os eleitores que votaram em Bolsonaro tanto em 2018 quanto em 2022, especialmente em relação à religião. No entanto, eles são menos desconfiados em relação aos partidos políticos, de forma semelhante a dos eleitores de Lula em 2022. Além disso, tendem a se posicionar ideologicamente no centro e a favorecer a presença de um líder forte que resolva os problemas, mesmo que isso implique agir fora das leis.SciELO PreprintsSciELO PreprintsSciELO Preprints2023-09-13info:eu-repo/semantics/preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/678910.1590/SciELOPreprints.6789enghttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/article/view/6789/12851Copyright (c) 2023 Gregório Unbehaun Leal da Silvahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSilva, Gregório Unbehaun Leal dareponame:SciELO Preprintsinstname:Scientific Electronic Library Online (SCIELO)instacron:SCI2023-09-11T18:16:31Zoai:ops.preprints.scielo.org:preprint/6789Servidor de preprintshttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scieloONGhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/oaiscielo.submission@scielo.orgopendoar:2023-09-11T18:16:31SciELO Preprints - Scientific Electronic Library Online (SCIELO)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
WHO ARE THE VOTERS WHO POTENTIALLY ELECTED BOLSONARO AND LULA? QUEM SÃO OS ELEITORES QUE POSSIVELMENTE ELEGERAM BOLSONARO E LULA? |
title |
WHO ARE THE VOTERS WHO POTENTIALLY ELECTED BOLSONARO AND LULA? |
spellingShingle |
WHO ARE THE VOTERS WHO POTENTIALLY ELECTED BOLSONARO AND LULA? Silva, Gregório Unbehaun Leal da bolsolulista elections bolsonarism lullism institutional distrust bolsolulista eleições bolsonarismo lulismo desconfiança institucional |
title_short |
WHO ARE THE VOTERS WHO POTENTIALLY ELECTED BOLSONARO AND LULA? |
title_full |
WHO ARE THE VOTERS WHO POTENTIALLY ELECTED BOLSONARO AND LULA? |
title_fullStr |
WHO ARE THE VOTERS WHO POTENTIALLY ELECTED BOLSONARO AND LULA? |
title_full_unstemmed |
WHO ARE THE VOTERS WHO POTENTIALLY ELECTED BOLSONARO AND LULA? |
title_sort |
WHO ARE THE VOTERS WHO POTENTIALLY ELECTED BOLSONARO AND LULA? |
author |
Silva, Gregório Unbehaun Leal da |
author_facet |
Silva, Gregório Unbehaun Leal da |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Silva, Gregório Unbehaun Leal da |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
bolsolulista elections bolsonarism lullism institutional distrust bolsolulista eleições bolsonarismo lulismo desconfiança institucional |
topic |
bolsolulista elections bolsonarism lullism institutional distrust bolsolulista eleições bolsonarismo lulismo desconfiança institucional |
description |
Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, from the Workers' Party (PT), was barred from running for the presidency in 2018 by the electoral court. Four years later, Lula won the presidential elections. The common element between both elections is the main opponent: Jair Bolsonaro. The 2022 election was highly contested, and it is possible that so-called "volatile" voters played a decisive role. Those who initially would have voted for Lula if he had been a candidate and later chose Bolsonaro in 2018 may have influenced the outcome of the fiercely contested 2022 election. This study focuses on understanding who these "bolsolulistas" are and examining their attributes and thoughts. We seek answers using post-election survey data from 2018, which investigated both the vote and attitudes towards Lula, in case his candidacy was not legally barred. Additionally, we compare these results with survey data from 2022. We find that bolsolulistas share significant similarities with voters who chose Bolsonaro in both 2018 and 2022, especially regarding religion. However, they are less distrustful of political parties, similar to voters of Lula in 2022. Furthermore, they tend to position themselves ideologically in the center and favor the presence of a strong leader who can solve problems, even if it means acting outside the law. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-09-13 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
preprint |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/6789 10.1590/SciELOPreprints.6789 |
url |
https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/6789 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.1590/SciELOPreprints.6789 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/article/view/6789/12851 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2023 Gregório Unbehaun Leal da Silva https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2023 Gregório Unbehaun Leal da Silva https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
SciELO Preprints SciELO Preprints SciELO Preprints |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
SciELO Preprints SciELO Preprints SciELO Preprints |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:SciELO Preprints instname:Scientific Electronic Library Online (SCIELO) instacron:SCI |
instname_str |
Scientific Electronic Library Online (SCIELO) |
instacron_str |
SCI |
institution |
SCI |
reponame_str |
SciELO Preprints |
collection |
SciELO Preprints |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
SciELO Preprints - Scientific Electronic Library Online (SCIELO) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
scielo.submission@scielo.org |
_version_ |
1797047812901306368 |