Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Rennó,Lucio
Data de Publicação: 2006
Outros Autores: Spanakos,Anthony P.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais
Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0011-52582006000100002
Resumo: This article explores the relationship between macroeconomic indicators, financial markets, and voting intentions in the 1994, 1998, and 2002 Brazilian Presidential elections. Several hypotheses concerning the relationship between economic performance and politics were tested using a data set containing aggregate measures of self-reported preferences for the Presidential candidates and economic indicators (inflation, unemployment, exchange rate, C-Bond spread, and the São Paulo Stock Exchange Index). The first hypothesis refers to the potential simultaneity between economic indicators and voting intentions. Other hypotheses relate to the varied impact of different economic indicators on the intention to vote for a specific Presidential candidate as opposed to others. The results indicate that retrospective voting, based on the performance of economic fundamentals and not the financial market, predominates in Brazil.
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spelling Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002Presidential electionseconomic indicatorselection preferencesThis article explores the relationship between macroeconomic indicators, financial markets, and voting intentions in the 1994, 1998, and 2002 Brazilian Presidential elections. Several hypotheses concerning the relationship between economic performance and politics were tested using a data set containing aggregate measures of self-reported preferences for the Presidential candidates and economic indicators (inflation, unemployment, exchange rate, C-Bond spread, and the São Paulo Stock Exchange Index). The first hypothesis refers to the potential simultaneity between economic indicators and voting intentions. Other hypotheses relate to the varied impact of different economic indicators on the intention to vote for a specific Presidential candidate as opposed to others. The results indicate that retrospective voting, based on the performance of economic fundamentals and not the financial market, predominates in Brazil.Instituto de Estudos Sociais e Políticos (IESP) da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)2006-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0011-52582006000100002Dados v.49 n.1 2006reponame:Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociaisinstname:Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)instacron:UERJ10.1590/S0011-52582006000100002info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessRennó,LucioSpanakos,Anthony P.por2008-03-07T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0011-52582006000100002Revistahttp://dados.iesp.uerj.br/PUBhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||dados@iesp.uerj.br1678-45880011-5258opendoar:2008-03-07T00:00Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais - Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002
title Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002
spellingShingle Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002
Rennó,Lucio
Presidential elections
economic indicators
election preferences
title_short Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002
title_full Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002
title_fullStr Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002
title_full_unstemmed Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002
title_sort Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002
author Rennó,Lucio
author_facet Rennó,Lucio
Spanakos,Anthony P.
author_role author
author2 Spanakos,Anthony P.
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Rennó,Lucio
Spanakos,Anthony P.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Presidential elections
economic indicators
election preferences
topic Presidential elections
economic indicators
election preferences
description This article explores the relationship between macroeconomic indicators, financial markets, and voting intentions in the 1994, 1998, and 2002 Brazilian Presidential elections. Several hypotheses concerning the relationship between economic performance and politics were tested using a data set containing aggregate measures of self-reported preferences for the Presidential candidates and economic indicators (inflation, unemployment, exchange rate, C-Bond spread, and the São Paulo Stock Exchange Index). The first hypothesis refers to the potential simultaneity between economic indicators and voting intentions. Other hypotheses relate to the varied impact of different economic indicators on the intention to vote for a specific Presidential candidate as opposed to others. The results indicate that retrospective voting, based on the performance of economic fundamentals and not the financial market, predominates in Brazil.
publishDate 2006
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2006-01-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0011-52582006000100002
url http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0011-52582006000100002
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 10.1590/S0011-52582006000100002
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv text/html
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto de Estudos Sociais e Políticos (IESP) da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto de Estudos Sociais e Políticos (IESP) da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Dados v.49 n.1 2006
reponame:Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais
instname:Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)
instacron:UERJ
instname_str Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)
instacron_str UERJ
institution UERJ
reponame_str Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais
collection Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais
repository.name.fl_str_mv Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais - Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||dados@iesp.uerj.br
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