Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2006 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0011-52582006000100002 |
Resumo: | This article explores the relationship between macroeconomic indicators, financial markets, and voting intentions in the 1994, 1998, and 2002 Brazilian Presidential elections. Several hypotheses concerning the relationship between economic performance and politics were tested using a data set containing aggregate measures of self-reported preferences for the Presidential candidates and economic indicators (inflation, unemployment, exchange rate, C-Bond spread, and the São Paulo Stock Exchange Index). The first hypothesis refers to the potential simultaneity between economic indicators and voting intentions. Other hypotheses relate to the varied impact of different economic indicators on the intention to vote for a specific Presidential candidate as opposed to others. The results indicate that retrospective voting, based on the performance of economic fundamentals and not the financial market, predominates in Brazil. |
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Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002Presidential electionseconomic indicatorselection preferencesThis article explores the relationship between macroeconomic indicators, financial markets, and voting intentions in the 1994, 1998, and 2002 Brazilian Presidential elections. Several hypotheses concerning the relationship between economic performance and politics were tested using a data set containing aggregate measures of self-reported preferences for the Presidential candidates and economic indicators (inflation, unemployment, exchange rate, C-Bond spread, and the São Paulo Stock Exchange Index). The first hypothesis refers to the potential simultaneity between economic indicators and voting intentions. Other hypotheses relate to the varied impact of different economic indicators on the intention to vote for a specific Presidential candidate as opposed to others. The results indicate that retrospective voting, based on the performance of economic fundamentals and not the financial market, predominates in Brazil.Instituto de Estudos Sociais e Políticos (IESP) da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)2006-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0011-52582006000100002Dados v.49 n.1 2006reponame:Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociaisinstname:Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)instacron:UERJ10.1590/S0011-52582006000100002info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessRennó,LucioSpanakos,Anthony P.por2008-03-07T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0011-52582006000100002Revistahttp://dados.iesp.uerj.br/PUBhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||dados@iesp.uerj.br1678-45880011-5258opendoar:2008-03-07T00:00Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais - Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002 |
title |
Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002 |
spellingShingle |
Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002 Rennó,Lucio Presidential elections economic indicators election preferences |
title_short |
Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002 |
title_full |
Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002 |
title_fullStr |
Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002 |
title_sort |
Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002 |
author |
Rennó,Lucio |
author_facet |
Rennó,Lucio Spanakos,Anthony P. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Spanakos,Anthony P. |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Rennó,Lucio Spanakos,Anthony P. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Presidential elections economic indicators election preferences |
topic |
Presidential elections economic indicators election preferences |
description |
This article explores the relationship between macroeconomic indicators, financial markets, and voting intentions in the 1994, 1998, and 2002 Brazilian Presidential elections. Several hypotheses concerning the relationship between economic performance and politics were tested using a data set containing aggregate measures of self-reported preferences for the Presidential candidates and economic indicators (inflation, unemployment, exchange rate, C-Bond spread, and the São Paulo Stock Exchange Index). The first hypothesis refers to the potential simultaneity between economic indicators and voting intentions. Other hypotheses relate to the varied impact of different economic indicators on the intention to vote for a specific Presidential candidate as opposed to others. The results indicate that retrospective voting, based on the performance of economic fundamentals and not the financial market, predominates in Brazil. |
publishDate |
2006 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2006-01-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0011-52582006000100002 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0011-52582006000100002 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/S0011-52582006000100002 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto de Estudos Sociais e Políticos (IESP) da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ) |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto de Estudos Sociais e Políticos (IESP) da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ) |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Dados v.49 n.1 2006 reponame:Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais instname:Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ) instacron:UERJ |
instname_str |
Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ) |
instacron_str |
UERJ |
institution |
UERJ |
reponame_str |
Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais |
collection |
Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais - Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||dados@iesp.uerj.br |
_version_ |
1750312647935393793 |