ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF REPLACEMENT REGENERATION AND COPPICE REGENERATION IN EUCALYPTUS STANDS UNDER RISK CONDITIONS
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2015 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Cerne (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/61 |
Resumo: | Projects are by their very nature subject to conditions of uncertainty that obstruct the decision-making process. Uncertainties involving forestry projects are even greater, as they are combined with time of return on capital invested, being medium to long term. For successful forest planning, it is necessary to quantify uncertainties by converting them into risks. The decision on whether to adopt replacement regeneration or coppice regeneration in a forest stand is influenced by several factors, which include land availability for new forest crops, changes in project end use, oscillations in demand and technological advancement. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration of eucalyptus stands, under deterministic and under risk conditions. Information was gathered about costs and revenues for charcoal production in order to structure the cash flow used in the economic analysis, adopting the Net Present Value method (VPL). Risk assessment was based on simulations running the Monte Carlo method. Results led to the following conclusions: replacement regeneration is economically viable, even if the future stand has the same productivity as the original stand; coppice regeneration is an economically viable option even if productivity is a mere 70% of the original stand (high-tree planted stand), the best risk-return ratio option is restocking the stand (replacement regeneration) by one that is 20% more productive; the probabilistic analysis running the Monte Carlo method revealed that invariably there is economic viability for the various replacement and coppice regeneration options being studied, minimizing uncertainties and consequently increasing confidence in decision-making. |
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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF REPLACEMENT REGENERATION AND COPPICE REGENERATION IN EUCALYPTUS STANDS UNDER RISK CONDITIONSForest economicsinvestment analysisrisk and uncertaintyProjects are by their very nature subject to conditions of uncertainty that obstruct the decision-making process. Uncertainties involving forestry projects are even greater, as they are combined with time of return on capital invested, being medium to long term. For successful forest planning, it is necessary to quantify uncertainties by converting them into risks. The decision on whether to adopt replacement regeneration or coppice regeneration in a forest stand is influenced by several factors, which include land availability for new forest crops, changes in project end use, oscillations in demand and technological advancement. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration of eucalyptus stands, under deterministic and under risk conditions. Information was gathered about costs and revenues for charcoal production in order to structure the cash flow used in the economic analysis, adopting the Net Present Value method (VPL). Risk assessment was based on simulations running the Monte Carlo method. Results led to the following conclusions: replacement regeneration is economically viable, even if the future stand has the same productivity as the original stand; coppice regeneration is an economically viable option even if productivity is a mere 70% of the original stand (high-tree planted stand), the best risk-return ratio option is restocking the stand (replacement regeneration) by one that is 20% more productive; the probabilistic analysis running the Monte Carlo method revealed that invariably there is economic viability for the various replacement and coppice regeneration options being studied, minimizing uncertainties and consequently increasing confidence in decision-making. CERNECERNE2015-05-12info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/61CERNE; Vol. 17 No. 3 (2011); 393-401CERNE; v. 17 n. 3 (2011); 393-4012317-63420104-7760reponame:Cerne (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)instacron:UFLAporhttps://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/61/52Copyright (c) 2015 Isabel Carolina de Lima Guedes, Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior, Antonio Donizette de Oliveira, José Márcio de Mello, José Luiz Pereira de Rezende, Charles Plínio de Castro Silvainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessGuedes, Isabel Carolina de LimaJunior, Luiz Moreira CoelhoOliveira, Antonio Donizette deMello, José Márcio deRezende, José Luiz Pereira deSilva, Charles Plínio de Castro2015-05-12T11:04:19Zoai:cerne.ufla.br:article/61Revistahttps://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNEPUBhttps://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/oaicerne@dcf.ufla.br||cerne@dcf.ufla.br2317-63420104-7760opendoar:2024-05-21T19:53:28.716657Cerne (Online) - Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)true |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF REPLACEMENT REGENERATION AND COPPICE REGENERATION IN EUCALYPTUS STANDS UNDER RISK CONDITIONS |
title |
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF REPLACEMENT REGENERATION AND COPPICE REGENERATION IN EUCALYPTUS STANDS UNDER RISK CONDITIONS |
spellingShingle |
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF REPLACEMENT REGENERATION AND COPPICE REGENERATION IN EUCALYPTUS STANDS UNDER RISK CONDITIONS Guedes, Isabel Carolina de Lima Forest economics investment analysis risk and uncertainty |
title_short |
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF REPLACEMENT REGENERATION AND COPPICE REGENERATION IN EUCALYPTUS STANDS UNDER RISK CONDITIONS |
title_full |
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF REPLACEMENT REGENERATION AND COPPICE REGENERATION IN EUCALYPTUS STANDS UNDER RISK CONDITIONS |
title_fullStr |
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF REPLACEMENT REGENERATION AND COPPICE REGENERATION IN EUCALYPTUS STANDS UNDER RISK CONDITIONS |
title_full_unstemmed |
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF REPLACEMENT REGENERATION AND COPPICE REGENERATION IN EUCALYPTUS STANDS UNDER RISK CONDITIONS |
title_sort |
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF REPLACEMENT REGENERATION AND COPPICE REGENERATION IN EUCALYPTUS STANDS UNDER RISK CONDITIONS |
author |
Guedes, Isabel Carolina de Lima |
author_facet |
Guedes, Isabel Carolina de Lima Junior, Luiz Moreira Coelho Oliveira, Antonio Donizette de Mello, José Márcio de Rezende, José Luiz Pereira de Silva, Charles Plínio de Castro |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Junior, Luiz Moreira Coelho Oliveira, Antonio Donizette de Mello, José Márcio de Rezende, José Luiz Pereira de Silva, Charles Plínio de Castro |
author2_role |
author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Guedes, Isabel Carolina de Lima Junior, Luiz Moreira Coelho Oliveira, Antonio Donizette de Mello, José Márcio de Rezende, José Luiz Pereira de Silva, Charles Plínio de Castro |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Forest economics investment analysis risk and uncertainty |
topic |
Forest economics investment analysis risk and uncertainty |
description |
Projects are by their very nature subject to conditions of uncertainty that obstruct the decision-making process. Uncertainties involving forestry projects are even greater, as they are combined with time of return on capital invested, being medium to long term. For successful forest planning, it is necessary to quantify uncertainties by converting them into risks. The decision on whether to adopt replacement regeneration or coppice regeneration in a forest stand is influenced by several factors, which include land availability for new forest crops, changes in project end use, oscillations in demand and technological advancement. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration of eucalyptus stands, under deterministic and under risk conditions. Information was gathered about costs and revenues for charcoal production in order to structure the cash flow used in the economic analysis, adopting the Net Present Value method (VPL). Risk assessment was based on simulations running the Monte Carlo method. Results led to the following conclusions: replacement regeneration is economically viable, even if the future stand has the same productivity as the original stand; coppice regeneration is an economically viable option even if productivity is a mere 70% of the original stand (high-tree planted stand), the best risk-return ratio option is restocking the stand (replacement regeneration) by one that is 20% more productive; the probabilistic analysis running the Monte Carlo method revealed that invariably there is economic viability for the various replacement and coppice regeneration options being studied, minimizing uncertainties and consequently increasing confidence in decision-making. |
publishDate |
2015 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2015-05-12 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/61 |
url |
https://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/61 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/61/52 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
CERNE CERNE |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
CERNE CERNE |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
CERNE; Vol. 17 No. 3 (2011); 393-401 CERNE; v. 17 n. 3 (2011); 393-401 2317-6342 0104-7760 reponame:Cerne (Online) instname:Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA) instacron:UFLA |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA) |
instacron_str |
UFLA |
institution |
UFLA |
reponame_str |
Cerne (Online) |
collection |
Cerne (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Cerne (Online) - Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
cerne@dcf.ufla.br||cerne@dcf.ufla.br |
_version_ |
1799874939145158656 |