Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Salomão, Benito
Data de Publicação: 2023
Outros Autores: Silva, Cleomar Gomes da
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Nova Economia (Online)
Texto Completo: https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/7461
Resumo: This article assesses the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Brazil between 2002Q4 and 2020Q4. The Autoregressive Threshold estimations suggest a tipping point for the country’s Gross Debt to GDP ratio of 84% of GDP, and for the Net Debt to GDP ratio of 59% of GDP, beyond which public indebtedness starts to put negative pressure on GDP growth. Non-linear effects of the debt to GDP ratio on output are also estimated, via Markov Switching Regime, for different levels of the Debt/GDP ratio. The results indicate that the transition from a low to a high debt to GDP ratio regime causes a reduction in the Brazilian GDP growth rate. Keywords: Threshold Autoregressive, Markov Switching Regime, public debt, GDP growth. EL: E62, E63, H63
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spelling Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian caseNão linearidades na relação entre a dívida pública e o crescimento econômico: uma aplicação ao caso brasileiroThis article assesses the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Brazil between 2002Q4 and 2020Q4. The Autoregressive Threshold estimations suggest a tipping point for the country’s Gross Debt to GDP ratio of 84% of GDP, and for the Net Debt to GDP ratio of 59% of GDP, beyond which public indebtedness starts to put negative pressure on GDP growth. Non-linear effects of the debt to GDP ratio on output are also estimated, via Markov Switching Regime, for different levels of the Debt/GDP ratio. The results indicate that the transition from a low to a high debt to GDP ratio regime causes a reduction in the Brazilian GDP growth rate. Keywords: Threshold Autoregressive, Markov Switching Regime, public debt, GDP growth. EL: E62, E63, H63Este artigo avalia a relação entre dívida pública e crescimento econômico no Brasil entre os quartos trimestres de 2002 e de 2020. Primeiramente, são estimados Modelos Limiares Autorregressivos, cujos resultados sugerem um ponto de inflexão para uma relação dívida bruta/PIB de 84% do PIB e de 59% do PIB para a relação dívida líquida/PIB, para além dos quais o endividamento público passa a exercer pressão negativa sobre o crescimento econômico. Também são estimados os efeitos não lineares da relação dívida/PIB sobre o produto, por meio de Regressões de Mudanças de Regime Markoviano, para diferentes níveis da relação dívida/PIB. Os resultados indicam que a transição de regimes de baixa relação dívida/PIB para alta relação dívida/PIB provoca redução na taxa de crescimento econômico no Brasil. Palavras-chave: Limiar Autorregressivo, Regimes Markovianos, dívida pública, crescimento do PIB. JEL: E62, E63, H63Departamento de Ciências Econômicas da UFMG2023-07-25info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/7461Nova Economia; Vol. 33 No. 1 (2023): Revista Nova Economia; 153-180Nova Economia; v. 33 n. 1 (2023): Revista Nova Economia; 153-1801980-53810103-6351reponame:Nova Economia (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGporhttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/7461/3978Copyright (c) 2023 Benito Salomão, Cleomar Gomes da Silvahttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSalomão, BenitoSilva, Cleomar Gomes da2023-12-27T01:34:31Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/7461Revistahttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomiaPUBhttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/oai||ne@face.ufmg.br1980-53810103-6351opendoar:2023-12-27T01:34:31Nova Economia (Online) - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case
Não linearidades na relação entre a dívida pública e o crescimento econômico: uma aplicação ao caso brasileiro
title Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case
spellingShingle Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case
Salomão, Benito
title_short Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case
title_full Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case
title_fullStr Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case
title_full_unstemmed Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case
title_sort Nonlinearities in the relationship between public debt and economic growth: an application to the Brazilian case
author Salomão, Benito
author_facet Salomão, Benito
Silva, Cleomar Gomes da
author_role author
author2 Silva, Cleomar Gomes da
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Salomão, Benito
Silva, Cleomar Gomes da
description This article assesses the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Brazil between 2002Q4 and 2020Q4. The Autoregressive Threshold estimations suggest a tipping point for the country’s Gross Debt to GDP ratio of 84% of GDP, and for the Net Debt to GDP ratio of 59% of GDP, beyond which public indebtedness starts to put negative pressure on GDP growth. Non-linear effects of the debt to GDP ratio on output are also estimated, via Markov Switching Regime, for different levels of the Debt/GDP ratio. The results indicate that the transition from a low to a high debt to GDP ratio regime causes a reduction in the Brazilian GDP growth rate. Keywords: Threshold Autoregressive, Markov Switching Regime, public debt, GDP growth. EL: E62, E63, H63
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-07-25
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/7461
url https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/7461
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/7461/3978
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2023 Benito Salomão, Cleomar Gomes da Silva
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2023 Benito Salomão, Cleomar Gomes da Silva
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Departamento de Ciências Econômicas da UFMG
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Departamento de Ciências Econômicas da UFMG
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Nova Economia; Vol. 33 No. 1 (2023): Revista Nova Economia; 153-180
Nova Economia; v. 33 n. 1 (2023): Revista Nova Economia; 153-180
1980-5381
0103-6351
reponame:Nova Economia (Online)
instname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
instacron:UFMG
instname_str Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
instacron_str UFMG
institution UFMG
reponame_str Nova Economia (Online)
collection Nova Economia (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Nova Economia (Online) - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||ne@face.ufmg.br
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