The impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Tarik Marques do Pradotanure
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Diego Nobuhiko Miyajima, Aline Souza Magalhães, Edson Paulo Domingues, Terciane Sabadini Carvalho
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFMG
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/59409
Resumo: Global warming and climate impact on agricultural output, land use and food production. This paper seeks to verify the economic impacts of climate change in the Legal Amazon region, especially on agricultural production, land use, GDP and job creation. We employ the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, REGIA - Inter-regional General Equilibrium Model for the Brazilian Legal Amazon, to assess changes in agricultural production and land use in the region due to climate change scenarios proposed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results indicate a drop in economic indicators in the Legal Amazon leading to a loss in real GDP in the order of 1.18% in 2049 due to decrease in production and employment in the agricultural sector. Deforestation will increase due to the gradual replacement of pasture areas by crop fields. Such changes are not homogeneous in the space, affecting more the states of Mato Grosso, Tocantins and Pará, whose economy are dependent upon agriculture.
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spelling 2023-10-11T19:55:38Z2023-10-11T19:55:38Z2020211739010.1016/j.econ.2020.04.0011517-7580http://hdl.handle.net/1843/59409Global warming and climate impact on agricultural output, land use and food production. This paper seeks to verify the economic impacts of climate change in the Legal Amazon region, especially on agricultural production, land use, GDP and job creation. We employ the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, REGIA - Inter-regional General Equilibrium Model for the Brazilian Legal Amazon, to assess changes in agricultural production and land use in the region due to climate change scenarios proposed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results indicate a drop in economic indicators in the Legal Amazon leading to a loss in real GDP in the order of 1.18% in 2049 due to decrease in production and employment in the agricultural sector. Deforestation will increase due to the gradual replacement of pasture areas by crop fields. Such changes are not homogeneous in the space, affecting more the states of Mato Grosso, Tocantins and Pará, whose economy are dependent upon agriculture.Aquecimento global e impacto climático na produção agrícola, no uso da terra e na produção de alimentos. Este artigo busca verificar os impactos econômicos das mudanças climáticas na região da Amazônia Legal, especialmente na produção agrícola, no uso da terra, no PIB e na criação de empregos. Empregamos o modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável (CGE), REGIA - Modelo Inter-regional de Equilíbrio Geral para a Amazônia Legal Brasileira, para avaliar as mudanças na produção agrícola e no uso da terra na região devido aos cenários de mudanças climáticas propostos pelo IPCC (Painel Intergovernamental sobre Das Alterações Climáticas). Os resultados indicam uma queda nos indicadores econômicos na Amazônia Legal levando a uma perda do PIB real da ordem de 1,18% em 2049 devido à diminuição da produção e do emprego no setor agrícola. O desmatamento aumentará devido à substituição gradual de áreas de pastagens por campos de cultivo. Tais mudanças não são homogêneas no espaço, afetando mais os estados de Mato Grosso, Tocantins e Pará, cujas economias são dependentes da agricultura.engUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisUFMGBrasilFCE - DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIAS ECONÔMICASEconomiAAquecimento GlobalMudanças climáticasClimate ChangeFood ProductionLegal AmazonComputable General EquilibriumThe impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1517758020300291?via%3DihubTarik Marques do PradotanureDiego Nobuhiko MiyajimaAline Souza MagalhãesEdson Paulo DominguesTerciane Sabadini Carvalhoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGLICENSELicense.txtLicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82042https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/59409/1/License.txtfa505098d172de0bc8864fc1287ffe22MD51ORIGINALThe impacts of climate change on agricultural production....pdfThe impacts of climate change on agricultural production....pdfapplication/pdf1560292https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/59409/2/The%20impacts%20of%20climate%20change%20on%20agricultural%20production....pdf22ee14d9c9b8a7ebf4f039dfe8631ba6MD521843/594092023-10-11 18:47:20.021oai:repositorio.ufmg.br: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Repositório de PublicaçõesPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oaiopendoar:2023-10-11T21:47:20Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv The impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049
title The impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049
spellingShingle The impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049
Tarik Marques do Pradotanure
Climate Change
Food Production
Legal Amazon
Computable General Equilibrium
Aquecimento Global
Mudanças climáticas
title_short The impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049
title_full The impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049
title_fullStr The impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049
title_full_unstemmed The impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049
title_sort The impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049
author Tarik Marques do Pradotanure
author_facet Tarik Marques do Pradotanure
Diego Nobuhiko Miyajima
Aline Souza Magalhães
Edson Paulo Domingues
Terciane Sabadini Carvalho
author_role author
author2 Diego Nobuhiko Miyajima
Aline Souza Magalhães
Edson Paulo Domingues
Terciane Sabadini Carvalho
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Tarik Marques do Pradotanure
Diego Nobuhiko Miyajima
Aline Souza Magalhães
Edson Paulo Domingues
Terciane Sabadini Carvalho
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Climate Change
Food Production
Legal Amazon
Computable General Equilibrium
topic Climate Change
Food Production
Legal Amazon
Computable General Equilibrium
Aquecimento Global
Mudanças climáticas
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Aquecimento Global
Mudanças climáticas
description Global warming and climate impact on agricultural output, land use and food production. This paper seeks to verify the economic impacts of climate change in the Legal Amazon region, especially on agricultural production, land use, GDP and job creation. We employ the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, REGIA - Inter-regional General Equilibrium Model for the Brazilian Legal Amazon, to assess changes in agricultural production and land use in the region due to climate change scenarios proposed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results indicate a drop in economic indicators in the Legal Amazon leading to a loss in real GDP in the order of 1.18% in 2049 due to decrease in production and employment in the agricultural sector. Deforestation will increase due to the gradual replacement of pasture areas by crop fields. Such changes are not homogeneous in the space, affecting more the states of Mato Grosso, Tocantins and Pará, whose economy are dependent upon agriculture.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2020
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2023-10-11T19:55:38Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2023-10-11T19:55:38Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/1843/59409
dc.identifier.doi.pt_BR.fl_str_mv 10.1016/j.econ.2020.04.001
dc.identifier.issn.pt_BR.fl_str_mv 1517-7580
identifier_str_mv 10.1016/j.econ.2020.04.001
1517-7580
url http://hdl.handle.net/1843/59409
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.ispartof.none.fl_str_mv EconomiA
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv UFMG
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv Brasil
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv FCE - DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIAS ECONÔMICAS
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMG
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