The impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFMG |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/1843/59409 |
Resumo: | Global warming and climate impact on agricultural output, land use and food production. This paper seeks to verify the economic impacts of climate change in the Legal Amazon region, especially on agricultural production, land use, GDP and job creation. We employ the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, REGIA - Inter-regional General Equilibrium Model for the Brazilian Legal Amazon, to assess changes in agricultural production and land use in the region due to climate change scenarios proposed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results indicate a drop in economic indicators in the Legal Amazon leading to a loss in real GDP in the order of 1.18% in 2049 due to decrease in production and employment in the agricultural sector. Deforestation will increase due to the gradual replacement of pasture areas by crop fields. Such changes are not homogeneous in the space, affecting more the states of Mato Grosso, Tocantins and Pará, whose economy are dependent upon agriculture. |
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2023-10-11T19:55:38Z2023-10-11T19:55:38Z2020211739010.1016/j.econ.2020.04.0011517-7580http://hdl.handle.net/1843/59409Global warming and climate impact on agricultural output, land use and food production. This paper seeks to verify the economic impacts of climate change in the Legal Amazon region, especially on agricultural production, land use, GDP and job creation. We employ the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, REGIA - Inter-regional General Equilibrium Model for the Brazilian Legal Amazon, to assess changes in agricultural production and land use in the region due to climate change scenarios proposed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results indicate a drop in economic indicators in the Legal Amazon leading to a loss in real GDP in the order of 1.18% in 2049 due to decrease in production and employment in the agricultural sector. Deforestation will increase due to the gradual replacement of pasture areas by crop fields. Such changes are not homogeneous in the space, affecting more the states of Mato Grosso, Tocantins and Pará, whose economy are dependent upon agriculture.Aquecimento global e impacto climático na produção agrícola, no uso da terra e na produção de alimentos. Este artigo busca verificar os impactos econômicos das mudanças climáticas na região da Amazônia Legal, especialmente na produção agrícola, no uso da terra, no PIB e na criação de empregos. Empregamos o modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável (CGE), REGIA - Modelo Inter-regional de Equilíbrio Geral para a Amazônia Legal Brasileira, para avaliar as mudanças na produção agrícola e no uso da terra na região devido aos cenários de mudanças climáticas propostos pelo IPCC (Painel Intergovernamental sobre Das Alterações Climáticas). Os resultados indicam uma queda nos indicadores econômicos na Amazônia Legal levando a uma perda do PIB real da ordem de 1,18% em 2049 devido à diminuição da produção e do emprego no setor agrícola. O desmatamento aumentará devido à substituição gradual de áreas de pastagens por campos de cultivo. Tais mudanças não são homogêneas no espaço, afetando mais os estados de Mato Grosso, Tocantins e Pará, cujas economias são dependentes da agricultura.engUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisUFMGBrasilFCE - DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIAS ECONÔMICASEconomiAAquecimento GlobalMudanças climáticasClimate ChangeFood ProductionLegal AmazonComputable General EquilibriumThe impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1517758020300291?via%3DihubTarik Marques do PradotanureDiego Nobuhiko MiyajimaAline Souza MagalhãesEdson Paulo DominguesTerciane Sabadini Carvalhoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGLICENSELicense.txtLicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82042https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/59409/1/License.txtfa505098d172de0bc8864fc1287ffe22MD51ORIGINALThe impacts of climate change on agricultural production....pdfThe impacts of climate change on agricultural production....pdfapplication/pdf1560292https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/59409/2/The%20impacts%20of%20climate%20change%20on%20agricultural%20production....pdf22ee14d9c9b8a7ebf4f039dfe8631ba6MD521843/594092023-10-11 18:47:20.021oai:repositorio.ufmg.br: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Repositório de PublicaçõesPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oaiopendoar:2023-10-11T21:47:20Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
The impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049 |
title |
The impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049 |
spellingShingle |
The impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049 Tarik Marques do Pradotanure Climate Change Food Production Legal Amazon Computable General Equilibrium Aquecimento Global Mudanças climáticas |
title_short |
The impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049 |
title_full |
The impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049 |
title_fullStr |
The impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049 |
title_full_unstemmed |
The impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049 |
title_sort |
The impacts of climate change on agricultural production, land use and economy of the legal Amazon region between 2030 and 2049 |
author |
Tarik Marques do Pradotanure |
author_facet |
Tarik Marques do Pradotanure Diego Nobuhiko Miyajima Aline Souza Magalhães Edson Paulo Domingues Terciane Sabadini Carvalho |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Diego Nobuhiko Miyajima Aline Souza Magalhães Edson Paulo Domingues Terciane Sabadini Carvalho |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Tarik Marques do Pradotanure Diego Nobuhiko Miyajima Aline Souza Magalhães Edson Paulo Domingues Terciane Sabadini Carvalho |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Climate Change Food Production Legal Amazon Computable General Equilibrium |
topic |
Climate Change Food Production Legal Amazon Computable General Equilibrium Aquecimento Global Mudanças climáticas |
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Aquecimento Global Mudanças climáticas |
description |
Global warming and climate impact on agricultural output, land use and food production. This paper seeks to verify the economic impacts of climate change in the Legal Amazon region, especially on agricultural production, land use, GDP and job creation. We employ the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, REGIA - Inter-regional General Equilibrium Model for the Brazilian Legal Amazon, to assess changes in agricultural production and land use in the region due to climate change scenarios proposed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results indicate a drop in economic indicators in the Legal Amazon leading to a loss in real GDP in the order of 1.18% in 2049 due to decrease in production and employment in the agricultural sector. Deforestation will increase due to the gradual replacement of pasture areas by crop fields. Such changes are not homogeneous in the space, affecting more the states of Mato Grosso, Tocantins and Pará, whose economy are dependent upon agriculture. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2020 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2023-10-11T19:55:38Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2023-10-11T19:55:38Z |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
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article |
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http://hdl.handle.net/1843/59409 |
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10.1016/j.econ.2020.04.001 |
dc.identifier.issn.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
1517-7580 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.1016/j.econ.2020.04.001 1517-7580 |
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http://hdl.handle.net/1843/59409 |
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eng |
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Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
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UFMG |
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Brasil |
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FCE - DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIAS ECONÔMICAS |
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Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
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