BUSINESS CYCLES AND ECONOMIC POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE INDUSTRY OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL

• Autor(a) principal: Melo, Lívia Carolina Machado
• Data de Publicação: 2020
• Outros Autores: Gomes, Fabio Augusto Reis
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Análise Econômica (Online)
• Texto Completo: https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/76567
• topic: Ciclos Econômicos; Políticas Econômicas; Modelo de Mudança de Regime Markoviano; Rio Grande do Sul; E32; E61; C24; Economic cycles; Markov-Switching model; Economic policies; Rio Grande do Sul; E32; C24; E61

This study aims to estimate the economic cycles of Rio Grande do Sul industryto analyze how economic policies affect such cycles. For this purpose, the cycles ofmonthly industrial production, from January 2002 to December 2016, are estimated bymeans of autoregressive models with Markov regime switching. The selected specificationhas four lags and two regimes - expansion and recession - and indicates that Rio Grandedo Sul has longer periods of recession than expansion. Estimated the probabilities of theindustry being in recession in each month of the sample, this information was confrontedwith variables that represent monetary and fiscal policies, besides the exchange rate evolution.There is evidence that increases in the expenditures of the state government arecorrelated with the improved performance of the industry from Rio Grande do Sul state.