CAUSALITY RELATIONS IN THE INDUSTRIAL GROWTH PATTERN IN BRAZIL (1975-2003)
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Data de Publicação: | 2010 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Análise Econômica (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/6954 |
Resumo: | The main purpose of this paper was to identify the time preceding relations in the industrial production during 1975-2003, by the means of Granger causality tests. To that end, we have adopted the classification by categories of primary use (intermediate, consumer non-durable, consumer durable and capital goods). Specifically, we aimed to verify whether the distinct outcomes for the leadership and lagging relations that were a sharp characteristic of the Brazilian “miracle” have persisted. While the slowdown in the demand for consumer durables dragged the other sectors, the accumulation and production in the capital goods industry were finally growing. That was interpreted as a dynamic realization or effective demand problem. The main results of the present investigation emerged from a vector error correction model (VEC) and indicated that the production in the capital goods industry have lagged the movements in the consumer durables in the period, reproducing to a large extent the pattern observed during the growth “miracle”. Thus, conspicuous consumption seemed to drive industry and the economy as whole through growing spasms. |
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CAUSALITY RELATIONS IN THE INDUSTRIAL GROWTH PATTERN IN BRAZIL (1975-2003)RELAÇÕES DE CAUSALIDADE NO PADRÃO DE CRESCIMENTO INDUSTRIAL NO BRASIL (1975-2003)Capital goodsConsumer durable goodsGranger causalityO14C32Bens de capitalBens duráveis de consumoCausalidade GrangerC32O14The main purpose of this paper was to identify the time preceding relations in the industrial production during 1975-2003, by the means of Granger causality tests. To that end, we have adopted the classification by categories of primary use (intermediate, consumer non-durable, consumer durable and capital goods). Specifically, we aimed to verify whether the distinct outcomes for the leadership and lagging relations that were a sharp characteristic of the Brazilian “miracle” have persisted. While the slowdown in the demand for consumer durables dragged the other sectors, the accumulation and production in the capital goods industry were finally growing. That was interpreted as a dynamic realization or effective demand problem. The main results of the present investigation emerged from a vector error correction model (VEC) and indicated that the production in the capital goods industry have lagged the movements in the consumer durables in the period, reproducing to a large extent the pattern observed during the growth “miracle”. Thus, conspicuous consumption seemed to drive industry and the economy as whole through growing spasms.O objetivo central do artigo foi identificar as relações de precedência temporal no âmbito da produção industrial no período 1975-2003 por meio de testes de causalidade Granger, em que foi utilizada a classificação por categorias de uso (bens intermediários, não duráveis de consumo, duráveis de consumo e de capital). Em particular, buscou-se verificar se as relações de liderança e defasagem que se apresentaram com clareza durante o “milagre brasileiro” persistiram durante o período em questão. Na ocasião, quando o desaquecimento na demanda por duráveis arrastava os demais setores, a acumulação e a produção corrente na indústria de bens de capital finalmente cresciam. Isso foi interpretado como sendo um problema de realização dinâmica ou demanda efetiva. Os principais resultados do presente estudo emergiram de um modelo de vetores autorregressivos com mecanismo de correção de erro (VEC) e indicaram que a produção na indústria de bens de capital secundou os movimentos em bens de consumo duráveis no período, reproduzindo em larga medida o padrão observado durante o “milagre”. Assim, o consumo conspícuo pareceu conduzir a indústria e a economia em seu conjunto por espasmos de crescimento.UFRGS2010-09-24info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/695410.22456/2176-5456.6954Análise Econômica; Vol. 28 No. 53 (2010): março de 2010Análise Econômica; v. 28 n. 53 (2010): março de 20102176-54560102-9924reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)instacron:UFRGSporhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/6954/9656Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômicainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSchettini, Bernardo PattaAndrade, Ário Maro deSalvato, Márcio Antônio2019-08-29T12:36:49Zoai:seer.ufrgs.br:article/6954Revistahttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomicaPUBhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/oai||rae@ufrgs.br2176-54560102-9924opendoar:2019-08-29T12:36:49Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
CAUSALITY RELATIONS IN THE INDUSTRIAL GROWTH PATTERN IN BRAZIL (1975-2003) RELAÇÕES DE CAUSALIDADE NO PADRÃO DE CRESCIMENTO INDUSTRIAL NO BRASIL (1975-2003) |
title |
CAUSALITY RELATIONS IN THE INDUSTRIAL GROWTH PATTERN IN BRAZIL (1975-2003) |
spellingShingle |
CAUSALITY RELATIONS IN THE INDUSTRIAL GROWTH PATTERN IN BRAZIL (1975-2003) Schettini, Bernardo Patta Capital goods Consumer durable goods Granger causality O14 C32 Bens de capital Bens duráveis de consumo Causalidade Granger C32 O14 |
title_short |
CAUSALITY RELATIONS IN THE INDUSTRIAL GROWTH PATTERN IN BRAZIL (1975-2003) |
title_full |
CAUSALITY RELATIONS IN THE INDUSTRIAL GROWTH PATTERN IN BRAZIL (1975-2003) |
title_fullStr |
CAUSALITY RELATIONS IN THE INDUSTRIAL GROWTH PATTERN IN BRAZIL (1975-2003) |
title_full_unstemmed |
CAUSALITY RELATIONS IN THE INDUSTRIAL GROWTH PATTERN IN BRAZIL (1975-2003) |
title_sort |
CAUSALITY RELATIONS IN THE INDUSTRIAL GROWTH PATTERN IN BRAZIL (1975-2003) |
author |
Schettini, Bernardo Patta |
author_facet |
Schettini, Bernardo Patta Andrade, Ário Maro de Salvato, Márcio Antônio |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Andrade, Ário Maro de Salvato, Márcio Antônio |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Schettini, Bernardo Patta Andrade, Ário Maro de Salvato, Márcio Antônio |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Capital goods Consumer durable goods Granger causality O14 C32 Bens de capital Bens duráveis de consumo Causalidade Granger C32 O14 |
topic |
Capital goods Consumer durable goods Granger causality O14 C32 Bens de capital Bens duráveis de consumo Causalidade Granger C32 O14 |
description |
The main purpose of this paper was to identify the time preceding relations in the industrial production during 1975-2003, by the means of Granger causality tests. To that end, we have adopted the classification by categories of primary use (intermediate, consumer non-durable, consumer durable and capital goods). Specifically, we aimed to verify whether the distinct outcomes for the leadership and lagging relations that were a sharp characteristic of the Brazilian “miracle” have persisted. While the slowdown in the demand for consumer durables dragged the other sectors, the accumulation and production in the capital goods industry were finally growing. That was interpreted as a dynamic realization or effective demand problem. The main results of the present investigation emerged from a vector error correction model (VEC) and indicated that the production in the capital goods industry have lagged the movements in the consumer durables in the period, reproducing to a large extent the pattern observed during the growth “miracle”. Thus, conspicuous consumption seemed to drive industry and the economy as whole through growing spasms. |
publishDate |
2010 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2010-09-24 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/6954 10.22456/2176-5456.6954 |
url |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/6954 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.22456/2176-5456.6954 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/6954/9656 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
UFRGS |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
UFRGS |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Análise Econômica; Vol. 28 No. 53 (2010): março de 2010 Análise Econômica; v. 28 n. 53 (2010): março de 2010 2176-5456 0102-9924 reponame:Análise Econômica (Online) instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) instacron:UFRGS |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) |
instacron_str |
UFRGS |
institution |
UFRGS |
reponame_str |
Análise Econômica (Online) |
collection |
Análise Econômica (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||rae@ufrgs.br |
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1799766264787238912 |