Avaliação dos aspectos do risco na produtividade de cana-de-açúcar em municípios sergipanos

• Autor(a) principal: Gois, Gislaine Santana
• Data de Publicação: 2016
• Tipo de documento: Trabalho de conclusão de curso
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFS
• Texto Completo: http://ri.ufs.br/jspui/handle/riufs/7180
• topic: Ciências atuariais; Estatística; Cana-de-açucar; Avaliação de risco; Cana-de-açucar em Sergipe (SE); OUTROS::CIENCIAS ATUARIAIS

Brazil stands out as the world's largest producer of sugarcane and sugar, the second largest producer of ethanol in the world, as well as leading the world market of sugar export. However, despite the expansive growth of agribusiness in the country, only 14% of the 73 million hectares planted have the protection of some insurer. In agricultural insurance, because of the catastrophic risk, high premium collection makes it impossible for the market to grow, so government support is essential through the subsidy to the premium. In this scenario, several authors criticize the methodology used by Brazilian insurers to estimate the value of premium rates and the expected insurance payment, in which is considered the municipal average of the agricultural productivity of the last four years. This methodology can cause distortions in the forecast of insurance rates, because the average can be influenced by extreme values, such as in situations of catastrophic risk. In this way, this study aims to identify, group and analyze the degree of risk of the municipalities of Sergipe producing sugarcane under study, in an attempt to avoid adverse selection, as well as to indicate a methodology to add the evaluation of agricultural insurance. The metric used to classify the degree of risk was the coefficient of variation, besides of Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) and Cluster Analysis, used to group the municipalities according to the similarity of productivity and the degree of risk. After the analyzes, it can be verified that there is evidence that the classification by risk level of the municipalities of Sergipe producing sugarcane is relevant in obtaining a risk diagnosis for Sergipe, allowing insurers to analyze the characteristics of the risk in each region of the State, avoiding the adverse selection of the risk and providing greater growth and development of the agricultural insurance market. The coefficient of variation, besides being indicated for classification of the degree of risk, can also be used as a complementary methodology for the evaluation of agricultural insurance, because it considers the variability of the data, not just the arithmetic mean.