Aplicação de métodos quantitativos de previsão de demanda em uma gelateria artesanal

• Autor(a) principal: Crivelaro, Pedro Felipe Pereira
• Data de Publicação: 2023
• Tipo de documento: Trabalho de conclusão de curso
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFU
• Texto Completo: https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/39781
• topic: Gelateria; Ice cream shops; Média móvel simples; Simple moving average; Suavização exponencial simples; Sazonalidade; Simple exponential smoothing; Seasonality; Decomposição da série temporal; Time series decomposition; CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA DE PRODUCAO::GERENCIA DE PRODUCAO::PLANEJAMENTO, PROJETO E CONTROLE DE SISTEMAS DE PRODUCAO

In an increasingly competitive scenario, companies need to improve their internal and external processes to reduce costs, waste and boost their profits. To this end, the use of techniques that assist in sales forecasting can be fundamental for the effective management of the company's productive resources. In this context, the objective of this work was to apply quantitative demand forecasting methods in a small artisanal gelateria, in order to maintain curated levels of raw materials stocks and facilitate decision-making. This is a study of an applied nature, and in relation to its objectives, it is classified as quantitative research, with the procedure being a case study. Based on the time series analysis, the simple mobile media, simple exponential smoothing and time series finishing models were applied. The results showed that the time series settlement model was the most accurate for forecasting gelato demand, with MAD and MAPE values being 56.03 and 11.91%, respectively.