Spreading processes on complex networks: theory, simulations and applications

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Costa, Guilherme Henrique da Silva
Data de Publicação: 2022
Tipo de documento: Tese
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
Texto Completo: https://locus.ufv.br//handle/123456789/31092
https://doi.org/10.47328/ufvbbt.2022.508
Resumo: The use of complex networks as a substrate for the study of dynamic processes is a rich interdisciplinary area with several applications in real problems. In particular, the study of spreading processes in this framework are foundational for several models in biology, physics, and sociology. In this thesis, we develop studies on fundamental and theoretical aspects of dynamical processes, which have a connection with non- equilibrium statistical mechanics, as well as direct and practical applications for the study of real infectious diseases. We developed a quasi-stationary simulation method, one way to analyze systems with absorbing states, aiming at joining the best of ex- isting methods: computational simplicity with precision in the characterization of lo- calized transitions. After extensive simulations of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model in several types of complex networks, we were able to validate the method. Furthermore, we developed an heterogeneous mean-field theory for the symbiotic contact process with two species. Numerical integrations of the equations indicates the existence of a biestability region that depends on the heterogeneity of the com- plex network in addition to non-trivial finite size behaviors. Computer simulations in complex networks validated the theory and complemented the results. Finally, we de- veloped works with applications for the spreading of COVID-19. In the beginning of the pandemic, we built a data-driven compartmental epidemic model with metapop- ulations to investigate how Sars-Cov-2 would spread in Brazil in a municipality level. We were able to compare several mitigation scenarios and verify the desynchroniza- tion of the epidemic outbreaks in Brazil, a result confirmed a posteriori. In addition, we developed a method to estimate the underreporting of documented COVID-19 cases in different locations in Brazil using a compartmental model. These contribu- tions show the vast applications of dynamic process toolbox in complex networks, in addition to its importance for real situations. Keywords: Dynamical processes. Theoretical epidemiology. Complex networks.
id UFV_36fc72f59e8cc7ecb3c4a9f7aabaa30d
oai_identifier_str oai:locus.ufv.br:123456789/31092
network_acronym_str UFV
network_name_str LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
repository_id_str 2145
spelling Spreading processes on complex networks: theory, simulations and applicationsProcessos de espalhamento em redes complexas: teoria, simulação e aplicaçõesFísica estatísticaEspalhamento (Física)Epidemiologia - Métodos estatísticosFísica Estatística e TermodinâmicaThe use of complex networks as a substrate for the study of dynamic processes is a rich interdisciplinary area with several applications in real problems. In particular, the study of spreading processes in this framework are foundational for several models in biology, physics, and sociology. In this thesis, we develop studies on fundamental and theoretical aspects of dynamical processes, which have a connection with non- equilibrium statistical mechanics, as well as direct and practical applications for the study of real infectious diseases. We developed a quasi-stationary simulation method, one way to analyze systems with absorbing states, aiming at joining the best of ex- isting methods: computational simplicity with precision in the characterization of lo- calized transitions. After extensive simulations of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model in several types of complex networks, we were able to validate the method. Furthermore, we developed an heterogeneous mean-field theory for the symbiotic contact process with two species. Numerical integrations of the equations indicates the existence of a biestability region that depends on the heterogeneity of the com- plex network in addition to non-trivial finite size behaviors. Computer simulations in complex networks validated the theory and complemented the results. Finally, we de- veloped works with applications for the spreading of COVID-19. In the beginning of the pandemic, we built a data-driven compartmental epidemic model with metapop- ulations to investigate how Sars-Cov-2 would spread in Brazil in a municipality level. We were able to compare several mitigation scenarios and verify the desynchroniza- tion of the epidemic outbreaks in Brazil, a result confirmed a posteriori. In addition, we developed a method to estimate the underreporting of documented COVID-19 cases in different locations in Brazil using a compartmental model. These contribu- tions show the vast applications of dynamic process toolbox in complex networks, in addition to its importance for real situations. Keywords: Dynamical processes. Theoretical epidemiology. Complex networks.A utilização de redes complexas como substrato para o estudo de processos dinâmi- cos é uma área interdiscplinar rica e com aplicações em diversos problemas reais. Em particular, o estudo de processos de espalhamento encontra nesse ferramental a base para diversos modelos em biologia, física e sociologia. Nesta tese, desenvolvemos tanto estudos em aspectos fundamentais e teóricos, os quais possuem conexões com a mecânica estatística de não equilíbrio, quanto aplicações mais diretas e práticas para o estudo de doenças infecciosas reais. Desenvolvemos um método de simulação quasi- estacionário, uma das formas de se analisar sistemas com estados absorventes, com o objetivo de agregar o melhor de métodos já existentes: simplicidade computacional com precisão na caracterização de transições localizadas. Após extensas simulações do modelo suscetível-infectado-suscetível, pudemos validar o método. Além disso, desenvolvemos uma teoria de campo médio heterogênea para o processo de contato simbiótico com duas espécies. Integrações numéricas sugerem a existência de uma região de biestabilidade que varia com a heterogeneidade da rede além de relações de tamanho finito não triviais. Simulações computacionais em redes complexas val- idaram a teoria e complementaram os resultados. Por fim, desenvolvemos trabalhos com aplicações para a progação da COVID-19. Próximo ao início da pandemia, con- struímos um modelo epidêmico compartimental com metapopulações e orientado por dados para investigar como se daria o espalhamento do Sars-Cov-2 no Brasil à nível de municípios. Pudemos comparar diversos cenários de mitigação e verificar a dessincronização dos surtos epidêmicos no Brasil, resultado confirmado a posteriori. Além disso, desenvolvemos um método para estimar a subnotificação de casos de COVID-19 documentados em diferentes localidades do Brasil a partir de um modelo compartimental. Essas contribuições mostram as vastas aplicações do ferramental de processos dinâmicos em redes complexas, além da importância para situações reais. Palavras-chave: Processos dinâmicos. Epidemiologica teórica. Redes complexas.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível SuperiorUniversidade Federal de ViçosaFísicaFerreira Junior, Silvio da CostaCosta, Guilherme Henrique da Silva2023-06-22T18:28:07Z2023-06-22T18:28:07Z2022-04-25info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisapplication/pdfCOSTA, Guilherme Henrique da Silva. Spreading processes on complex networks: theory, simulations and applications. 2022. 186 f. Tese (Doutorado em Física) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa. 2022.https://locus.ufv.br//handle/123456789/31092https://doi.org/10.47328/ufvbbt.2022.508enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFVinstname:Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)instacron:UFV2024-07-12T07:07:32Zoai:locus.ufv.br:123456789/31092Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.locus.ufv.br/oai/requestfabiojreis@ufv.bropendoar:21452024-07-12T07:07:32LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV - Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Spreading processes on complex networks: theory, simulations and applications
Processos de espalhamento em redes complexas: teoria, simulação e aplicações
title Spreading processes on complex networks: theory, simulations and applications
spellingShingle Spreading processes on complex networks: theory, simulations and applications
Costa, Guilherme Henrique da Silva
Física estatística
Espalhamento (Física)
Epidemiologia - Métodos estatísticos
Física Estatística e Termodinâmica
title_short Spreading processes on complex networks: theory, simulations and applications
title_full Spreading processes on complex networks: theory, simulations and applications
title_fullStr Spreading processes on complex networks: theory, simulations and applications
title_full_unstemmed Spreading processes on complex networks: theory, simulations and applications
title_sort Spreading processes on complex networks: theory, simulations and applications
author Costa, Guilherme Henrique da Silva
author_facet Costa, Guilherme Henrique da Silva
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Ferreira Junior, Silvio da Costa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Costa, Guilherme Henrique da Silva
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Física estatística
Espalhamento (Física)
Epidemiologia - Métodos estatísticos
Física Estatística e Termodinâmica
topic Física estatística
Espalhamento (Física)
Epidemiologia - Métodos estatísticos
Física Estatística e Termodinâmica
description The use of complex networks as a substrate for the study of dynamic processes is a rich interdisciplinary area with several applications in real problems. In particular, the study of spreading processes in this framework are foundational for several models in biology, physics, and sociology. In this thesis, we develop studies on fundamental and theoretical aspects of dynamical processes, which have a connection with non- equilibrium statistical mechanics, as well as direct and practical applications for the study of real infectious diseases. We developed a quasi-stationary simulation method, one way to analyze systems with absorbing states, aiming at joining the best of ex- isting methods: computational simplicity with precision in the characterization of lo- calized transitions. After extensive simulations of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model in several types of complex networks, we were able to validate the method. Furthermore, we developed an heterogeneous mean-field theory for the symbiotic contact process with two species. Numerical integrations of the equations indicates the existence of a biestability region that depends on the heterogeneity of the com- plex network in addition to non-trivial finite size behaviors. Computer simulations in complex networks validated the theory and complemented the results. Finally, we de- veloped works with applications for the spreading of COVID-19. In the beginning of the pandemic, we built a data-driven compartmental epidemic model with metapop- ulations to investigate how Sars-Cov-2 would spread in Brazil in a municipality level. We were able to compare several mitigation scenarios and verify the desynchroniza- tion of the epidemic outbreaks in Brazil, a result confirmed a posteriori. In addition, we developed a method to estimate the underreporting of documented COVID-19 cases in different locations in Brazil using a compartmental model. These contribu- tions show the vast applications of dynamic process toolbox in complex networks, in addition to its importance for real situations. Keywords: Dynamical processes. Theoretical epidemiology. Complex networks.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-04-25
2023-06-22T18:28:07Z
2023-06-22T18:28:07Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis
format doctoralThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv COSTA, Guilherme Henrique da Silva. Spreading processes on complex networks: theory, simulations and applications. 2022. 186 f. Tese (Doutorado em Física) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa. 2022.
https://locus.ufv.br//handle/123456789/31092
https://doi.org/10.47328/ufvbbt.2022.508
identifier_str_mv COSTA, Guilherme Henrique da Silva. Spreading processes on complex networks: theory, simulations and applications. 2022. 186 f. Tese (Doutorado em Física) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa. 2022.
url https://locus.ufv.br//handle/123456789/31092
https://doi.org/10.47328/ufvbbt.2022.508
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Viçosa
Física
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Viçosa
Física
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
instname:Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)
instacron:UFV
instname_str Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)
instacron_str UFV
institution UFV
reponame_str LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
collection LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
repository.name.fl_str_mv LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV - Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv fabiojreis@ufv.br
_version_ 1822610605037584385