Transmissão de preços na cadeia produtiva de suínos

• Autor(a) principal: Martins, Alexandra Pereira
• Data de Publicação: 2010
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
• Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/44
• topic: Transmissão de preços; Cointegração; Suínos; Soja e milho; Prices transmission; Cointegration; Pigs; Corn and soybean; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA INTERNACIONAL::RELACOES DO COMERCIO; POLITICA COMERCIAL; INTEGRACAO ECONOMICA

The swine production chain in Brazil is undergoing a process of growth and modernization, particularly regarding the expansion of international market share of pork meat. However, this chain has suffered several limitations, arisen from factors that are linked to the price instability of industry inputs (corn and soybeans) and to the international pork meat market, adding up to the low consumption in the domestic market. There is, thus, a market with great uncertainty about prices. In this work, the objective was to analyze the transference relations occurred between the prices of corn and soybeans and the international price of pork meat, on the prices received by pork meat producers in Brazil, and also to analyze the integration of the pork meat international market within the period from October 2003 to April 2010. For this, the work was based on the theory of production and price integration between markets, the theoretical model, and Auto-regression Vector Model with Error Correction (VEC), the analytical model. According to the results, there had been found independent relationships between the price received by Brazilian pig farmers and the prices received by Brazilian producers of soybeans, corn and the international price of pork meat, since a price shock on these had a significant influence on the movements of prices received by pig farmers. However, there were not verified significant involvements of prices received by producers of pork meat from Brazil in the prices received by Brazilian producers of corn and soybean as well as the international price of pork meat. Thus, one can infer that prices received by Brazilian producers of soybeans, corn and pork meat, on the international market, are relevant to explain the behaviour of the price received by pork meat producers in Brazil. However, this price behaviour is not harmonic, since shocks originated in the prices of Brazilian pork producers have little influence on the price received by producers of corn, soybean and on the international price of pork. The impulseresponse functions showed that the prices of pork meat producers in Brazil for a long time have been suffering the interference caused by shocks in the prices of inputs and pork meat on the international market. In this market, composed of leading exporters of pork and major importer of pork from Brazil, it was observed that export prices of pork meat imported from Canada and Argentina are the ones that most influenced the changes in pork meat prices in Brazil, and the price of pork meat in Brazil had a significant influence on the international market prices, and also on the United States and Canada pork meat market prices, besides the prices of the main importers of pork. Therefore, the prices paid by Singapore to Brazilian pork meat were highly significant to the changes in the price of the United States, Canada, and the European Union and in the international market for pork meat. The only exception was found in the price of the European Union, whose prices were more vulnerable to price the United States, Argentina and Singapore, and small compared with the price of pork in Brazil, since it showed strong participation in other pork meat markets in the analysis. Consequently, it can only be said that the Brazilian pork meat market has a strong integration with the international pork meat market prices.