Influência de algumas forçantes climáticas no período chuvoso da Região Sudeste do Brasil e suas conseqüências para as culturas da soja e do milho

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Minuzzi, Rosandro Boligon
Data de Publicação: 2006
Tipo de documento: Tese
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV
Texto Completo: http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/1508
Resumo: Daily data from pluviometric and meteorological stations were used to analyze statistically the influence of the climate forcings El Niño-southern oscillation (ENOS) and tropical Atlantic dipole on the rainfall behavior at different temporal scales during the rainy period (PC) in Southeastern Brazil (SEB). The influence of ENOS on the different phenological stages and planting times (October 1st and November 1st) of medium-cycle crops (120 days duration) corn and soybean, in SEB s arable lands, was also analyzed. The classifications of the beginning (IPC) and end (FPC) of rainy periods and total amount of rainfall were based on average, maximum and minimum values, respectively, using the quantis technique and the normalized deviations. Besides the classification, monthly and quarterly rainfall amounts in years of occurrence of climate forcings were correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (IOS) and the sea surface temperature (TSM) of equatorial Pacific regions and North and South Tropical Atlantic Basins, using total and partial lag correlations, lagging up to nine months. In SEB areas that had at least two significant lag correlations at 95% of probability between the monthly and/or quarterly rainfall and the regions of Equatorial Pacific and Tropical Atlantic oceans, the confidence interval was determined for the average number of rainy days, which were divided into four intensity classes. On the basis of two areas correlated with each other and located in the far north and far south of SEB (MG1 and SP3), Principal Components Analysis and Multiple and Total Linear Regression were used to analyze four situations of simultaneous occurrences of climate forcings. The Effective Drought Index and the Water Requirement Satisfaction (only for Minas Gerais), in soils with three different water retention capacities (30 mm, 50 mm and 70 mm) were chosen to evaluate the climate risk on soybean and corn during ENOS occurrences. The positive phase of the Atlantic Dipole was shown to be the most evident climate forcing at the beginning of the rainy period, whereas at the FPC, the most significant results were found in Negative Dipole years of the Atlantic, tending to end late in the MG1, ES1, SP3 and SP4 regions, with reverse behavior in the RJ1 region. The expressive anomalies of monthly and quarterly rainfalls, observed in years of LN climate forcing, were barely related with equatorial Pacific TSM, while El Niño had less influence on the beginning and end of rainy periods and on the monthly and quarterly rains of Southeastern Brazil. The influences on the soybean crop are more visible during La Niña occurrences, in which the municipal districts Patos de Minas , Lavras and Sete Lagoas were reached, mainly plantings carried out on October 1st. In El Niño years, the regions of Lavras and Sete Lagoas are more susceptible to drought effects, resulting from the climate forcing, mainly soybean plantings carried out on November 1st. With respect to the corn crop, the middle-south region of Minas Gerais is more susceptible to La Niña effects, regardless of the planting time and soil type. In El Niño years, however, the regions of Lavras and Sete Lagoas are more affected, mainly plantings carried out on October 1st, during the vegetative and maturation stages and soils with available water capacity (CAD) of 30 mm in both regions and CAD of 50 mm in the Lavras region.
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spelling Minuzzi, Rosandro Boligonhttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4704760T9Costa, José Maria Nogueira dahttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4783772Y3Vianello, Rubens Leitehttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4781978P6Sediyama, Gilberto Chohakuhttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4788051E6Lima, Francisca Zenaide dehttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4763794Y6Costa, Luiz Cláudiohttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4781620U92015-03-26T12:49:17Z2007-02-082015-03-26T12:49:17Z2006-09-06MINUZZI, Rosandro Boligon. Influence of climate forcings on the rainy period of Southeastern Brazil and consequences for soybean and corn crops. 2006. 269 f. Tese (Doutorado em Agrometeorologia; Climatologia; Micrometeorologia) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2006.http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/1508Daily data from pluviometric and meteorological stations were used to analyze statistically the influence of the climate forcings El Niño-southern oscillation (ENOS) and tropical Atlantic dipole on the rainfall behavior at different temporal scales during the rainy period (PC) in Southeastern Brazil (SEB). The influence of ENOS on the different phenological stages and planting times (October 1st and November 1st) of medium-cycle crops (120 days duration) corn and soybean, in SEB s arable lands, was also analyzed. The classifications of the beginning (IPC) and end (FPC) of rainy periods and total amount of rainfall were based on average, maximum and minimum values, respectively, using the quantis technique and the normalized deviations. Besides the classification, monthly and quarterly rainfall amounts in years of occurrence of climate forcings were correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (IOS) and the sea surface temperature (TSM) of equatorial Pacific regions and North and South Tropical Atlantic Basins, using total and partial lag correlations, lagging up to nine months. In SEB areas that had at least two significant lag correlations at 95% of probability between the monthly and/or quarterly rainfall and the regions of Equatorial Pacific and Tropical Atlantic oceans, the confidence interval was determined for the average number of rainy days, which were divided into four intensity classes. On the basis of two areas correlated with each other and located in the far north and far south of SEB (MG1 and SP3), Principal Components Analysis and Multiple and Total Linear Regression were used to analyze four situations of simultaneous occurrences of climate forcings. The Effective Drought Index and the Water Requirement Satisfaction (only for Minas Gerais), in soils with three different water retention capacities (30 mm, 50 mm and 70 mm) were chosen to evaluate the climate risk on soybean and corn during ENOS occurrences. The positive phase of the Atlantic Dipole was shown to be the most evident climate forcing at the beginning of the rainy period, whereas at the FPC, the most significant results were found in Negative Dipole years of the Atlantic, tending to end late in the MG1, ES1, SP3 and SP4 regions, with reverse behavior in the RJ1 region. The expressive anomalies of monthly and quarterly rainfalls, observed in years of LN climate forcing, were barely related with equatorial Pacific TSM, while El Niño had less influence on the beginning and end of rainy periods and on the monthly and quarterly rains of Southeastern Brazil. The influences on the soybean crop are more visible during La Niña occurrences, in which the municipal districts Patos de Minas , Lavras and Sete Lagoas were reached, mainly plantings carried out on October 1st. In El Niño years, the regions of Lavras and Sete Lagoas are more susceptible to drought effects, resulting from the climate forcing, mainly soybean plantings carried out on November 1st. With respect to the corn crop, the middle-south region of Minas Gerais is more susceptible to La Niña effects, regardless of the planting time and soil type. In El Niño years, however, the regions of Lavras and Sete Lagoas are more affected, mainly plantings carried out on October 1st, during the vegetative and maturation stages and soils with available water capacity (CAD) of 30 mm in both regions and CAD of 50 mm in the Lavras region.Dados diários de estações pluviométricas e meteorológicas foram utilizados com o propósito de analisar estatisticamente a influência dos forçantes climáticos El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS) e Dipolo do Atlântico Tropical no comportamento da precipitação em diferentes escalas temporais, durante o período chuvoso (PC) da Região Sudeste do Brasil (SEB). A influência do ENOS também foi analisada nos diferentes estádios fenológicos e épocas de plantio (1o de outubro e 1o de novembro) das culturas de ciclo médio (duração de 120 dias) do milho e da soja, em áreas cultiváveis do SEB. As classificações do início e final dos períodos chuvosos (IPC e FPC, respectivamente) e quantidade total da precipitação foram baseadas, respectivamente, nos valores médio, máximo e mínimo, na técnica dos quantis e nos desvios normalizados. Além da classificação, as quantias mensal e trimestral da precipitação em anos de ocorrência das forçantes climáticas foram correlacionadas com o Índice de Oscilação Sul (IOS) e com a temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM) de regiões do Pacífico Equatorial e das Bacias Norte e Sul do Atlântico Tropical, fazendo-se uso das correlações lag, totais e parciais, defasadas em até nove meses. Nas áreas do SEB, que tiveram ao menos duas correlações lag significativas a 95% de probabilidade entre a precipitação mensal e, ou, trimestral, com as regiões dos oceanos Pacífico Equatorial e Atlântico Tropical, foi determinado o intervalo de confiança para a média do número de dias chuvosos, divididos em quatro classes de intensidade. Baseando em duas áreas correlacionadas entre si e localizadas nos extremos norte e sul do SEB (MG1 e SP3), empregou-se a técnica dos Componentes Principais e da Regressão Linear Múltipla e Total para analisar quatro situações de ocorrências simultâneas das forçantes climáticas. Já o Índice de Seca Efetiva e o Índice de Satisfação das Necessidades de Água (somente para Minas Gerais), em solos com três diferentes capacidades de retenção de água (30 mm, 50 mm e 70 mm), foram adotados para avaliar o risco climático da soja e do milho durante ocorrências do ENOS. A fase positiva do Dipolo do Atlântico mostrou ser a forçante climática de maior evidência no início do período chuvoso, enquanto no FPC os resultados mais expressivos foram notados em anos do Dipolo Negativo do Atlântico, com tendência a término tardio nas áreas MG1, ES1, SP3 e SP4, havendo comportamento oposto na área RJ1. As anomalias expressivas de precipitações mensal e trimestral, observadas em anos da forçante climática LN, pouco estiveram relacionadas com a TSM do Pacífico Equatorial, enquanto o El Niño foi o de menor influência no início e final dos períodos chuvosos e nas chuvas mensal e trimestral do Sudeste do Brasil. As influências na cultura da soja são mais visíveis durante ocorrências do La Nina, em que Patos de Minas, Lavras e Sete Lagoas foram os municípios mais atingidos, principalmente nos plantios realizados em 1o de outubro. Em anos de El Niño, as regiões de Sete Lagoas e Lavras são as mais suscetíveis aos efeitos da estiagem, resultante da forçante climática, principalmente em plantios de soja realizados em 1o de novembro. Já com relação à cultura do milho a região centro-sul de Minas Gerais é mais suscetível aos efeitos do La Niña, independentemente da época de plantio e do tipo de solo. Ao passo que em anos de El Nino as regiões de Lavras e de Sete Lagoas sofrem maior influência, principalmente em plantios realizados em 1o de outubro, nos estádios vegetativo e de maturação e solos com capacidade de água disponível (CAD) igual a 30 mm em ambas as regiões e CAD igual a 50 mm na região de Lavras.Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológicoapplication/pdfporUniversidade Federal de ViçosaDoutorado em Meteorologia AgrícolaUFVBRAgrometeorologia; Climatologia; MicrometeorologiaPrecipitaçãoEl NiñaLa NiñaDipolo do AtlânticoSojaMilhoPrecipitationEl NiñoLa NiñaAtlantic dipoleSoybeanCornCNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIA::AGROMETEOROLOGIAInfluência de algumas forçantes climáticas no período chuvoso da Região Sudeste do Brasil e suas conseqüências para as culturas da soja e do milhoInfluence of climate forcings on the rainy period of Southeastern Brazil and consequences for soybean and corn cropsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFVinstname:Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)instacron:UFVORIGINALtexto completo.pdfapplication/pdf6056537https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/1508/1/texto%20completo.pdf2708f687d449828f9dc217fa035ed625MD51TEXTtexto completo.pdf.txttexto completo.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain518300https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/1508/2/texto%20completo.pdf.txt0721e33912520c01b1848c6da0a58cfeMD52THUMBNAILtexto completo.pdf.jpgtexto completo.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg3698https://locus.ufv.br//bitstream/123456789/1508/3/texto%20completo.pdf.jpg4ccf8b85da2d2d072583f42ef1d5946aMD53123456789/15082016-04-07 23:09:05.326oai:locus.ufv.br:123456789/1508Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.locus.ufv.br/oai/requestfabiojreis@ufv.bropendoar:21452016-04-08T02:09:05LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV - Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)false
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Influência de algumas forçantes climáticas no período chuvoso da Região Sudeste do Brasil e suas conseqüências para as culturas da soja e do milho
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv Influence of climate forcings on the rainy period of Southeastern Brazil and consequences for soybean and corn crops
title Influência de algumas forçantes climáticas no período chuvoso da Região Sudeste do Brasil e suas conseqüências para as culturas da soja e do milho
spellingShingle Influência de algumas forçantes climáticas no período chuvoso da Região Sudeste do Brasil e suas conseqüências para as culturas da soja e do milho
Minuzzi, Rosandro Boligon
Precipitação
El Niña
La Niña
Dipolo do Atlântico
Soja
Milho
Precipitation
El Niño
La Niña
Atlantic dipole
Soybean
Corn
CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIA::AGROMETEOROLOGIA
title_short Influência de algumas forçantes climáticas no período chuvoso da Região Sudeste do Brasil e suas conseqüências para as culturas da soja e do milho
title_full Influência de algumas forçantes climáticas no período chuvoso da Região Sudeste do Brasil e suas conseqüências para as culturas da soja e do milho
title_fullStr Influência de algumas forçantes climáticas no período chuvoso da Região Sudeste do Brasil e suas conseqüências para as culturas da soja e do milho
title_full_unstemmed Influência de algumas forçantes climáticas no período chuvoso da Região Sudeste do Brasil e suas conseqüências para as culturas da soja e do milho
title_sort Influência de algumas forçantes climáticas no período chuvoso da Região Sudeste do Brasil e suas conseqüências para as culturas da soja e do milho
author Minuzzi, Rosandro Boligon
author_facet Minuzzi, Rosandro Boligon
author_role author
dc.contributor.authorLattes.por.fl_str_mv http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4704760T9
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Minuzzi, Rosandro Boligon
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv Costa, José Maria Nogueira da
dc.contributor.advisor-co1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4783772Y3
dc.contributor.advisor-co2.fl_str_mv Vianello, Rubens Leite
dc.contributor.advisor-co2Lattes.fl_str_mv http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4781978P6
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Sediyama, Gilberto Chohaku
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4788051E6
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv Lima, Francisca Zenaide de
dc.contributor.referee1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4763794Y6
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv Costa, Luiz Cláudio
dc.contributor.referee2Lattes.fl_str_mv http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4781620U9
contributor_str_mv Costa, José Maria Nogueira da
Vianello, Rubens Leite
Sediyama, Gilberto Chohaku
Lima, Francisca Zenaide de
Costa, Luiz Cláudio
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Precipitação
El Niña
La Niña
Dipolo do Atlântico
Soja
Milho
topic Precipitação
El Niña
La Niña
Dipolo do Atlântico
Soja
Milho
Precipitation
El Niño
La Niña
Atlantic dipole
Soybean
Corn
CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIA::AGROMETEOROLOGIA
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Precipitation
El Niño
La Niña
Atlantic dipole
Soybean
Corn
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIA::AGROMETEOROLOGIA
description Daily data from pluviometric and meteorological stations were used to analyze statistically the influence of the climate forcings El Niño-southern oscillation (ENOS) and tropical Atlantic dipole on the rainfall behavior at different temporal scales during the rainy period (PC) in Southeastern Brazil (SEB). The influence of ENOS on the different phenological stages and planting times (October 1st and November 1st) of medium-cycle crops (120 days duration) corn and soybean, in SEB s arable lands, was also analyzed. The classifications of the beginning (IPC) and end (FPC) of rainy periods and total amount of rainfall were based on average, maximum and minimum values, respectively, using the quantis technique and the normalized deviations. Besides the classification, monthly and quarterly rainfall amounts in years of occurrence of climate forcings were correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (IOS) and the sea surface temperature (TSM) of equatorial Pacific regions and North and South Tropical Atlantic Basins, using total and partial lag correlations, lagging up to nine months. In SEB areas that had at least two significant lag correlations at 95% of probability between the monthly and/or quarterly rainfall and the regions of Equatorial Pacific and Tropical Atlantic oceans, the confidence interval was determined for the average number of rainy days, which were divided into four intensity classes. On the basis of two areas correlated with each other and located in the far north and far south of SEB (MG1 and SP3), Principal Components Analysis and Multiple and Total Linear Regression were used to analyze four situations of simultaneous occurrences of climate forcings. The Effective Drought Index and the Water Requirement Satisfaction (only for Minas Gerais), in soils with three different water retention capacities (30 mm, 50 mm and 70 mm) were chosen to evaluate the climate risk on soybean and corn during ENOS occurrences. The positive phase of the Atlantic Dipole was shown to be the most evident climate forcing at the beginning of the rainy period, whereas at the FPC, the most significant results were found in Negative Dipole years of the Atlantic, tending to end late in the MG1, ES1, SP3 and SP4 regions, with reverse behavior in the RJ1 region. The expressive anomalies of monthly and quarterly rainfalls, observed in years of LN climate forcing, were barely related with equatorial Pacific TSM, while El Niño had less influence on the beginning and end of rainy periods and on the monthly and quarterly rains of Southeastern Brazil. The influences on the soybean crop are more visible during La Niña occurrences, in which the municipal districts Patos de Minas , Lavras and Sete Lagoas were reached, mainly plantings carried out on October 1st. In El Niño years, the regions of Lavras and Sete Lagoas are more susceptible to drought effects, resulting from the climate forcing, mainly soybean plantings carried out on November 1st. With respect to the corn crop, the middle-south region of Minas Gerais is more susceptible to La Niña effects, regardless of the planting time and soil type. In El Niño years, however, the regions of Lavras and Sete Lagoas are more affected, mainly plantings carried out on October 1st, during the vegetative and maturation stages and soils with available water capacity (CAD) of 30 mm in both regions and CAD of 50 mm in the Lavras region.
publishDate 2006
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2006-09-06
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2007-02-08
2015-03-26T12:49:17Z
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2015-03-26T12:49:17Z
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dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv MINUZZI, Rosandro Boligon. Influence of climate forcings on the rainy period of Southeastern Brazil and consequences for soybean and corn crops. 2006. 269 f. Tese (Doutorado em Agrometeorologia; Climatologia; Micrometeorologia) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2006.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/1508
identifier_str_mv MINUZZI, Rosandro Boligon. Influence of climate forcings on the rainy period of Southeastern Brazil and consequences for soybean and corn crops. 2006. 269 f. Tese (Doutorado em Agrometeorologia; Climatologia; Micrometeorologia) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2006.
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