Monte Carlo simulation applied to 5-year recertification projects in surface equipment for drilling offshore oil wells
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Revista Gestão e Projetos (GeP) |
Texto Completo: | https://periodicos.uninove.br/gep/article/view/23452 |
Resumo: | Several project management tools may be applied in oil and gas industry. The PERT tool, also known as estimate of three points, uses specialists’ info to calculate the duration of project schedule tasks, taking into consideration optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic scenarios, all of them related to project’s risks and uncertainty. Monte Carlo Simulation tool proposes a random numbers sampling process, applied throughout project critical path, to predict finishing probabilities within specific dates. This article aims to employ the Monte Carlo simulation as a tool for schedule management, based on risk analysis, applied to five-year recertification projects in surface equipment for drilling offshore oil wells. Therefore, using a combination of PERT and Monte Carlo Simulation tools, combine to other project management concepts, it was possible to perform a probability analysis and obtain a prediction of the project finish scenario, based on its risks and uncertainty analyzed. The results have shown the project original schedule had low chances of finishing within time stablished and so, the simulation performed contributes for the initial schedule revision and improvement. |
id |
UNINOVE-4_a5e2402af1829ebb5bb1dae8b19cd254 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:ojs.periodicos.uninove.br:article/23452 |
network_acronym_str |
UNINOVE-4 |
network_name_str |
Revista Gestão e Projetos (GeP) |
repository_id_str |
|
spelling |
Monte Carlo simulation applied to 5-year recertification projects in surface equipment for drilling offshore oil wellsSimulação de Monte Carlo aplicada à projetos de recertificação de 5 anos em equipamentos de superfície para perfuração de poços de petróleo offshoreOil and gasDrillingProject managementRisksScheduleCritical pathPERTSimulationMonte CarloPetróleo e gásPerfuraçãoGerenciamentos de projetosRiscosCronogramaCaminho críticoPERTSimulaçãoMonte CarloSeveral project management tools may be applied in oil and gas industry. The PERT tool, also known as estimate of three points, uses specialists’ info to calculate the duration of project schedule tasks, taking into consideration optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic scenarios, all of them related to project’s risks and uncertainty. Monte Carlo Simulation tool proposes a random numbers sampling process, applied throughout project critical path, to predict finishing probabilities within specific dates. This article aims to employ the Monte Carlo simulation as a tool for schedule management, based on risk analysis, applied to five-year recertification projects in surface equipment for drilling offshore oil wells. Therefore, using a combination of PERT and Monte Carlo Simulation tools, combine to other project management concepts, it was possible to perform a probability analysis and obtain a prediction of the project finish scenario, based on its risks and uncertainty analyzed. The results have shown the project original schedule had low chances of finishing within time stablished and so, the simulation performed contributes for the initial schedule revision and improvement.Diversas ferramentas do gerenciamento de projetos podem ser aplicadas nos serviços da indústria de petróleo e gás. A ferramenta PERT, também conhecida como estimativa de três pontos, utiliza-se da informação de especialistas para calcular a duração das atividades do cronograma do projeto, levando em consideração cenários otimistas, mais prováveis e pessimistas, todos relacionados às incertezas e riscos do projeto. A ferramenta da Simulação de Monte Carlo propõe um processo de amostragem de números aleatórios, aplicados ao longo do caminho crítico de um projeto, para prever as probabilidades de conclusão em datas específicas. Com base neste contexto, o objetivo desta pesquisa é empregar a simulação de Monte Carlo como uma ferramenta para o Gerenciamento de Cronograma a partir da análise dos riscos, aplicada à projetos de recertificação de cinco anos em equipamentos de superfície para perfuração de poços de petróleo offshore. Para tanto, foi utilizada a combinação das ferramentas PERT e Simulação de Monte Carlo, dentre outros conceitos de gerenciamento de projetos, o que possibilitou realizar uma análise de probabilidade e obter uma previsão do cenário de conclusão do projeto, baseado em suas incertezas e riscos analisados. Os resultados demostraram que o cronograma original do projeto possuía chances baixas de ser concluído dentro do prazo, de modo que a simulação realizada contribui para revisão e melhoria do cronograma inicial.Universidade Nove de Julho - Uninove2023-03-31info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.uninove.br/gep/article/view/2345210.5585/gep.v14i1.23452Revista de Gestão e Projetos; v. 14 n. 1 (2023): (jan./abr.); 96-1322236-0972reponame:Revista Gestão e Projetos (GeP)instname:Universidade Nove de Julho (UNINOVE)instacron:UNINOVEporhttps://periodicos.uninove.br/gep/article/view/23452/10101Copyright (c) 2023 Dos autoreshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessFreitas Rodrigues, DiogoBarbosa Sobral, Ana Paula2023-03-31T14:44:47Zoai:ojs.periodicos.uninove.br:article/23452Revistahttps://periodicos.uninove.br/gepPRIhttps://periodicos.uninove.br/gep/oaigep@uninove.br || editor@revistagep.org || crismonteiro@uninove.br2236-09722236-0972opendoar:2023-03-31T14:44:47Revista Gestão e Projetos (GeP) - Universidade Nove de Julho (UNINOVE)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Monte Carlo simulation applied to 5-year recertification projects in surface equipment for drilling offshore oil wells Simulação de Monte Carlo aplicada à projetos de recertificação de 5 anos em equipamentos de superfície para perfuração de poços de petróleo offshore |
title |
Monte Carlo simulation applied to 5-year recertification projects in surface equipment for drilling offshore oil wells |
spellingShingle |
Monte Carlo simulation applied to 5-year recertification projects in surface equipment for drilling offshore oil wells Freitas Rodrigues, Diogo Oil and gas Drilling Project management Risks Schedule Critical path PERT Simulation Monte Carlo Petróleo e gás Perfuração Gerenciamentos de projetos Riscos Cronograma Caminho crítico PERT Simulação Monte Carlo |
title_short |
Monte Carlo simulation applied to 5-year recertification projects in surface equipment for drilling offshore oil wells |
title_full |
Monte Carlo simulation applied to 5-year recertification projects in surface equipment for drilling offshore oil wells |
title_fullStr |
Monte Carlo simulation applied to 5-year recertification projects in surface equipment for drilling offshore oil wells |
title_full_unstemmed |
Monte Carlo simulation applied to 5-year recertification projects in surface equipment for drilling offshore oil wells |
title_sort |
Monte Carlo simulation applied to 5-year recertification projects in surface equipment for drilling offshore oil wells |
author |
Freitas Rodrigues, Diogo |
author_facet |
Freitas Rodrigues, Diogo Barbosa Sobral, Ana Paula |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Barbosa Sobral, Ana Paula |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Freitas Rodrigues, Diogo Barbosa Sobral, Ana Paula |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Oil and gas Drilling Project management Risks Schedule Critical path PERT Simulation Monte Carlo Petróleo e gás Perfuração Gerenciamentos de projetos Riscos Cronograma Caminho crítico PERT Simulação Monte Carlo |
topic |
Oil and gas Drilling Project management Risks Schedule Critical path PERT Simulation Monte Carlo Petróleo e gás Perfuração Gerenciamentos de projetos Riscos Cronograma Caminho crítico PERT Simulação Monte Carlo |
description |
Several project management tools may be applied in oil and gas industry. The PERT tool, also known as estimate of three points, uses specialists’ info to calculate the duration of project schedule tasks, taking into consideration optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic scenarios, all of them related to project’s risks and uncertainty. Monte Carlo Simulation tool proposes a random numbers sampling process, applied throughout project critical path, to predict finishing probabilities within specific dates. This article aims to employ the Monte Carlo simulation as a tool for schedule management, based on risk analysis, applied to five-year recertification projects in surface equipment for drilling offshore oil wells. Therefore, using a combination of PERT and Monte Carlo Simulation tools, combine to other project management concepts, it was possible to perform a probability analysis and obtain a prediction of the project finish scenario, based on its risks and uncertainty analyzed. The results have shown the project original schedule had low chances of finishing within time stablished and so, the simulation performed contributes for the initial schedule revision and improvement. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-03-31 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.uninove.br/gep/article/view/23452 10.5585/gep.v14i1.23452 |
url |
https://periodicos.uninove.br/gep/article/view/23452 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.5585/gep.v14i1.23452 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.uninove.br/gep/article/view/23452/10101 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2023 Dos autores https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2023 Dos autores https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Nove de Julho - Uninove |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Nove de Julho - Uninove |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista de Gestão e Projetos; v. 14 n. 1 (2023): (jan./abr.); 96-132 2236-0972 reponame:Revista Gestão e Projetos (GeP) instname:Universidade Nove de Julho (UNINOVE) instacron:UNINOVE |
instname_str |
Universidade Nove de Julho (UNINOVE) |
instacron_str |
UNINOVE |
institution |
UNINOVE |
reponame_str |
Revista Gestão e Projetos (GeP) |
collection |
Revista Gestão e Projetos (GeP) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista Gestão e Projetos (GeP) - Universidade Nove de Julho (UNINOVE) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
gep@uninove.br || editor@revistagep.org || crismonteiro@uninove.br |
_version_ |
1797052864580812800 |