A multi-dimensional non-homogeneous Markov chain of order K to jointly study multi-pollutant exceedances
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10651-023-00557-8 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/248710 |
Resumo: | In this work we consider a multivariate non-homogeneous Markov chain of order K≥ 0 to study the occurrences of exceedances of environmental thresholds. In the model, d≥ 1 pollutants may be observed and, according to their respective environmental thresholds, a pollutant’s concentration measurement may be considered an exceedance or not. The parameters of the model are the order of the chain, and its initial and transition distributions. These parameters are estimated under the Bayesian point of view with the maximum a posteriori and leave-one-out cross validation methods used to estimate the order. In the case of the initial and transition probabilities, the estimation is made through samples generated using their respective posterior distributions. Once these parameters are obtained, we may estimate the probability of having no, one or more pollutants exceeding the associated environmental thresholds. This is made using the Markov property as well as a recurrence formula. Results are applied to the case where d= 2 which will correspond to ozone and particulate matter with diameter smaller than 10 microns (PM10) measurements obtained from the Mexico City monitoring network. |
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Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
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A multi-dimensional non-homogeneous Markov chain of order K to jointly study multi-pollutant exceedancesBayesian inferenceJoint environmental exceedancesNon-homogeneous Markov chainsOzone and PM10In this work we consider a multivariate non-homogeneous Markov chain of order K≥ 0 to study the occurrences of exceedances of environmental thresholds. In the model, d≥ 1 pollutants may be observed and, according to their respective environmental thresholds, a pollutant’s concentration measurement may be considered an exceedance or not. The parameters of the model are the order of the chain, and its initial and transition distributions. These parameters are estimated under the Bayesian point of view with the maximum a posteriori and leave-one-out cross validation methods used to estimate the order. In the case of the initial and transition probabilities, the estimation is made through samples generated using their respective posterior distributions. Once these parameters are obtained, we may estimate the probability of having no, one or more pollutants exceeding the associated environmental thresholds. This is made using the Markov property as well as a recurrence formula. Results are applied to the case where d= 2 which will correspond to ozone and particulate matter with diameter smaller than 10 microns (PM10) measurements obtained from the Mexico City monitoring network.Instituto de Matemáticas Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Area de la Investigación Científica, DFDepartamento de Estatística Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia Universidade Estadual Paulista “Júlio de Mesquita Filho”Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos NaturalesDepartamento de Estatística Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia Universidade Estadual Paulista “Júlio de Mesquita Filho”Area de la Investigación CientíficaUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos NaturalesGallegos-Herrada, Marco A.Rodrigues, Eliane R.Tarumoto, Mario H. [UNESP]Tzintzun, Guadalupe2023-07-29T13:51:33Z2023-07-29T13:51:33Z2023-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10651-023-00557-8Environmental and Ecological Statistics.1573-30091352-8505http://hdl.handle.net/11449/24871010.1007/s10651-023-00557-82-s2.0-85152787318Scopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengEnvironmental and Ecological Statisticsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2024-06-18T18:18:16Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/248710Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-08-05T21:54:41.086800Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
A multi-dimensional non-homogeneous Markov chain of order K to jointly study multi-pollutant exceedances |
title |
A multi-dimensional non-homogeneous Markov chain of order K to jointly study multi-pollutant exceedances |
spellingShingle |
A multi-dimensional non-homogeneous Markov chain of order K to jointly study multi-pollutant exceedances Gallegos-Herrada, Marco A. Bayesian inference Joint environmental exceedances Non-homogeneous Markov chains Ozone and PM10 |
title_short |
A multi-dimensional non-homogeneous Markov chain of order K to jointly study multi-pollutant exceedances |
title_full |
A multi-dimensional non-homogeneous Markov chain of order K to jointly study multi-pollutant exceedances |
title_fullStr |
A multi-dimensional non-homogeneous Markov chain of order K to jointly study multi-pollutant exceedances |
title_full_unstemmed |
A multi-dimensional non-homogeneous Markov chain of order K to jointly study multi-pollutant exceedances |
title_sort |
A multi-dimensional non-homogeneous Markov chain of order K to jointly study multi-pollutant exceedances |
author |
Gallegos-Herrada, Marco A. |
author_facet |
Gallegos-Herrada, Marco A. Rodrigues, Eliane R. Tarumoto, Mario H. [UNESP] Tzintzun, Guadalupe |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Rodrigues, Eliane R. Tarumoto, Mario H. [UNESP] Tzintzun, Guadalupe |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Area de la Investigación Científica Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Gallegos-Herrada, Marco A. Rodrigues, Eliane R. Tarumoto, Mario H. [UNESP] Tzintzun, Guadalupe |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Bayesian inference Joint environmental exceedances Non-homogeneous Markov chains Ozone and PM10 |
topic |
Bayesian inference Joint environmental exceedances Non-homogeneous Markov chains Ozone and PM10 |
description |
In this work we consider a multivariate non-homogeneous Markov chain of order K≥ 0 to study the occurrences of exceedances of environmental thresholds. In the model, d≥ 1 pollutants may be observed and, according to their respective environmental thresholds, a pollutant’s concentration measurement may be considered an exceedance or not. The parameters of the model are the order of the chain, and its initial and transition distributions. These parameters are estimated under the Bayesian point of view with the maximum a posteriori and leave-one-out cross validation methods used to estimate the order. In the case of the initial and transition probabilities, the estimation is made through samples generated using their respective posterior distributions. Once these parameters are obtained, we may estimate the probability of having no, one or more pollutants exceeding the associated environmental thresholds. This is made using the Markov property as well as a recurrence formula. Results are applied to the case where d= 2 which will correspond to ozone and particulate matter with diameter smaller than 10 microns (PM10) measurements obtained from the Mexico City monitoring network. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-07-29T13:51:33Z 2023-07-29T13:51:33Z 2023-01-01 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10651-023-00557-8 Environmental and Ecological Statistics. 1573-3009 1352-8505 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/248710 10.1007/s10651-023-00557-8 2-s2.0-85152787318 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10651-023-00557-8 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/248710 |
identifier_str_mv |
Environmental and Ecological Statistics. 1573-3009 1352-8505 10.1007/s10651-023-00557-8 2-s2.0-85152787318 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Environmental and Ecological Statistics |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Scopus reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
institution |
UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1808129372061696000 |