Investor sentiment, economic uncertainty, and monetary policy in Brazil
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng por |
Título da fonte: | Revista Contabilidade & Finanças (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://www.revistas.usp.br/rcf/article/view/191074 |
Resumo: | The aim of this study is to analyze how economic uncertainty and monetary policy affect investor sentiment in Brazil. Investor sentiment is an important element in the finance, economics, and accounting literature and its impact on financial markets is widely documented. However, understanding the variables that affect it remains an important challenge, and this research seeks to explore this gap within the Brazilian context. The study provides initial evidence regarding the impact of economic uncertainty and monetary policy on investor sentiment in Brazil. The findings documented here provide theoretical, managerial, and social contributions, with a possible impact on the areas of finance, economics, and accounting. Monthly data were used relating to four mechanisms of transmission of economic uncertainty and of monetary policy (interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate, economic uncertainty index) and to the consumer confidence index as a proxy for investor sentiment (covering the period from January of 2006 to March of 2020). An autoregressive distributed lag model was estimated to capture short- and long-term relationships between the variables. The results indicate that investor sentiment is affected by economic uncertainty and by the main mechanisms of transmission of monetary policy to different extents and in the different time horizons. The evidence suggests that investors, policymakers, and monetary authorities should consider sentiment as a signal, whether for altering investment portfolios or for anticipating economic trends. It also provides support for focusing on economic and monetary policy in the National Financial Education Strategy (Estratégia Nacional de Educação Financeira– ENEF) recently adopted in Brazil |
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Investor sentiment, economic uncertainty, and monetary policy in BrazilSentimento do investidor, incerteza econômica e política monetária no Brasilinvestor sentimenteconomic uncertaintymonetary policybehavioral financesentimento do investidorincerteza econômicapolítica monetáriafinanças comportamentaisThe aim of this study is to analyze how economic uncertainty and monetary policy affect investor sentiment in Brazil. Investor sentiment is an important element in the finance, economics, and accounting literature and its impact on financial markets is widely documented. However, understanding the variables that affect it remains an important challenge, and this research seeks to explore this gap within the Brazilian context. The study provides initial evidence regarding the impact of economic uncertainty and monetary policy on investor sentiment in Brazil. The findings documented here provide theoretical, managerial, and social contributions, with a possible impact on the areas of finance, economics, and accounting. Monthly data were used relating to four mechanisms of transmission of economic uncertainty and of monetary policy (interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate, economic uncertainty index) and to the consumer confidence index as a proxy for investor sentiment (covering the period from January of 2006 to March of 2020). An autoregressive distributed lag model was estimated to capture short- and long-term relationships between the variables. The results indicate that investor sentiment is affected by economic uncertainty and by the main mechanisms of transmission of monetary policy to different extents and in the different time horizons. The evidence suggests that investors, policymakers, and monetary authorities should consider sentiment as a signal, whether for altering investment portfolios or for anticipating economic trends. It also provides support for focusing on economic and monetary policy in the National Financial Education Strategy (Estratégia Nacional de Educação Financeira– ENEF) recently adopted in BrazilO objetivo da pesquisa é analisar como a incerteza econômica e a política monetária afetam o sentimento do investidor no Brasil. O sentimento do investidor é um elemento importante na literatura financeira, econômica e contábil, e seu impacto nos mercados financeiros é expressivamente documentado. Entretanto, compreender as variáveis que o afetam ainda é um importante desafio, e essa pesquisa procura explorar essa lacuna no contexto brasileiro. A pesquisa fornece evidências iniciais sobre o impacto da incerteza econômica e da política monetária sobre o sentimento do investidor no Brasil. Os achados aqui documentados fornecem contribuições teóricas, gerenciais e sociais, com possível impacto nas áreas de finanças, economia e contabilidade. Foram utilizados dados mensais de quatro mecanismos de transmissão da incerteza econômica e da política monetária (taxa de juros, taxa de câmbio, taxa de inflação e índice de incerteza econômica) e do índice de confiança do consumidor como proxy para sentimento do investidor (período de janeiro de 2006 a março de 2020), e estimado um modelo autorregressivo de defasagens distribuídas, capturando relações de curto e longo prazo entre as variáveis. Os resultados indicam que o sentimento do investidor é afetado pela incerteza econômica e pelos principais mecanismos de transmissão da política monetária em diferentes magnitudes e nos diferentes horizontes temporais. Essas evidências sugerem que investidores, formuladores de políticas e autoridades monetárias devem considerar o sentimento um sinal, seja para alteração em portfólios de investimentos, seja para antecipação dos rumos da economia. Ainda fornece subsídios para um maior enfoque da política econômica e monetária na Estratégia Nacional de Educação Financeira (ENEF) recentemente adotada no Brasil.Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária2021-12-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/rcf/article/view/19107410.1590/1808-057x202113220Revista Contabilidade & Finanças; v. 32 n. 87 (2021); 528-540Revista Contabilidade & Finanças; Vol. 32 No. 87 (2021); 528-540Revista Contabilidade & Finanças; Vol. 32 Núm. 87 (2021); 528-5401808-057X1519-7077reponame:Revista Contabilidade & Finanças (Online)instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USPengporhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/rcf/article/view/191074/176201https://www.revistas.usp.br/rcf/article/view/191074/176200Copyright (c) 2021 Revista Contabilidade & Finançashttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMarschner, Paulo FernandoCeretta, Paulo Sergio2021-12-07T18:45:57Zoai:revistas.usp.br:article/191074Revistahttp://www.revistas.usp.br/rcf/indexPUBhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.phprecont@usp.br||recont@usp.br1808-057X1519-7077opendoar:2021-12-07T18:45:57Revista Contabilidade & Finanças (Online) - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Investor sentiment, economic uncertainty, and monetary policy in Brazil Sentimento do investidor, incerteza econômica e política monetária no Brasil |
title |
Investor sentiment, economic uncertainty, and monetary policy in Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Investor sentiment, economic uncertainty, and monetary policy in Brazil Marschner, Paulo Fernando investor sentiment economic uncertainty monetary policy behavioral finance sentimento do investidor incerteza econômica política monetária finanças comportamentais |
title_short |
Investor sentiment, economic uncertainty, and monetary policy in Brazil |
title_full |
Investor sentiment, economic uncertainty, and monetary policy in Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Investor sentiment, economic uncertainty, and monetary policy in Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Investor sentiment, economic uncertainty, and monetary policy in Brazil |
title_sort |
Investor sentiment, economic uncertainty, and monetary policy in Brazil |
author |
Marschner, Paulo Fernando |
author_facet |
Marschner, Paulo Fernando Ceretta, Paulo Sergio |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Ceretta, Paulo Sergio |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Marschner, Paulo Fernando Ceretta, Paulo Sergio |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
investor sentiment economic uncertainty monetary policy behavioral finance sentimento do investidor incerteza econômica política monetária finanças comportamentais |
topic |
investor sentiment economic uncertainty monetary policy behavioral finance sentimento do investidor incerteza econômica política monetária finanças comportamentais |
description |
The aim of this study is to analyze how economic uncertainty and monetary policy affect investor sentiment in Brazil. Investor sentiment is an important element in the finance, economics, and accounting literature and its impact on financial markets is widely documented. However, understanding the variables that affect it remains an important challenge, and this research seeks to explore this gap within the Brazilian context. The study provides initial evidence regarding the impact of economic uncertainty and monetary policy on investor sentiment in Brazil. The findings documented here provide theoretical, managerial, and social contributions, with a possible impact on the areas of finance, economics, and accounting. Monthly data were used relating to four mechanisms of transmission of economic uncertainty and of monetary policy (interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate, economic uncertainty index) and to the consumer confidence index as a proxy for investor sentiment (covering the period from January of 2006 to March of 2020). An autoregressive distributed lag model was estimated to capture short- and long-term relationships between the variables. The results indicate that investor sentiment is affected by economic uncertainty and by the main mechanisms of transmission of monetary policy to different extents and in the different time horizons. The evidence suggests that investors, policymakers, and monetary authorities should consider sentiment as a signal, whether for altering investment portfolios or for anticipating economic trends. It also provides support for focusing on economic and monetary policy in the National Financial Education Strategy (Estratégia Nacional de Educação Financeira– ENEF) recently adopted in Brazil |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-12-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/rcf/article/view/191074 10.1590/1808-057x202113220 |
url |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/rcf/article/view/191074 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.1590/1808-057x202113220 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng por |
language |
eng por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/rcf/article/view/191074/176201 https://www.revistas.usp.br/rcf/article/view/191074/176200 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 Revista Contabilidade & Finanças http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 Revista Contabilidade & Finanças http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista Contabilidade & Finanças; v. 32 n. 87 (2021); 528-540 Revista Contabilidade & Finanças; Vol. 32 No. 87 (2021); 528-540 Revista Contabilidade & Finanças; Vol. 32 Núm. 87 (2021); 528-540 1808-057X 1519-7077 reponame:Revista Contabilidade & Finanças (Online) instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP) instacron:USP |
instname_str |
Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
instacron_str |
USP |
institution |
USP |
reponame_str |
Revista Contabilidade & Finanças (Online) |
collection |
Revista Contabilidade & Finanças (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista Contabilidade & Finanças (Online) - Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
recont@usp.br||recont@usp.br |
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1787713777882365952 |