Benefits and limitations of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps based scenarios: the case of Brazilian solar photovoltaic energy

• Autor(a) principal: Carvalho, Gustavo Macêdo de
• Data de Publicação: 2017
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP
• Texto Completo: http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12139/tde-27112017-123904/
• topic: Energia solar; Fuzzy Cognitive Maps; Fuzzy Cognitive Maps; Planejamento estratégico; Solar energy; Strategic planning

After the Second World War, there was an expression of interest in the study of the future. In order to achieve reliable objectives, several methods of scenario planning were invented. These methods comprise of qualitative and quantitative approaches inherited from their own school of origin. Each approach has advantages and limitations that can be observed by the study of each method in progress. However, mixed approaches often show a weak connection between qualitative and quantitative methods. The use of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), among scenario planning approaches, can overcoming the limitations of qualitative and quantitative techniques. This study focused on the problem of the lack of proper planning of scenarios based on FCMs in the alternative energy sectors, raising the question of whether this situation comes from a shortage of information or limitations of the FCMs. To resolve this problem, this study investigated benefits and limitations of FCM-based scenario planning through the application in the Brazilian photovoltaic sector. The following specific objectives were established: identify the strong and weak points of FCMs; analyze the expansion of these to different areas; identification of the main stakeholders used to develop FCM-based scenarios; application of the method in the Brazilian solar energy sector. We identified an increasing number of studies on FCMs in several new areas not considered in previous studies. This suggests that experts are expanding frontiers and recognizing the interdisciplinary potential of FCMs and their robustness of solving diverse kinds of problems. The main contribution of the research is to present the benefits and limitations of FCM-based scenario planning. For that, a scenario planning method was presented and the empirical evidence of its effectiveness was presented in the context of the Brazilian photovoltaic solar energy sector.