Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approach

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Florindo, Emmanuel Fernandes
Data de Publicação: 2019
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10773/26286
Resumo: We study the main determinants of international trade flows in goods between Ukraine and the EU-28 member states in the period 1995-2017. We estimate the augmented gravity model of international trade with robust Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Poisson (PPML), and PPML with fixed effects too estimate trade elasticities for total trade, exports and imports functions. The regression results are used to recommend trade policy makers on the implementation of the EU Association Free-Trade Agreement with Ukraine. The main findings reveal that, the income of Ukraine, the income of the EU-28 trading partners, distance but also income differences between Ukraine and its trading partners (Linder hypothesis), and the real exchange rate are important determinants of international trade. These results are robust to different trade specification functions of the augmented gravity model of international trade.
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spelling Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approachGravity modelAugmented gravity modelPoisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimatorPanel dataUkraineEuropean UnionEU-28,Foreign tradeTotal tradeExportsImportsWe study the main determinants of international trade flows in goods between Ukraine and the EU-28 member states in the period 1995-2017. We estimate the augmented gravity model of international trade with robust Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Poisson (PPML), and PPML with fixed effects too estimate trade elasticities for total trade, exports and imports functions. The regression results are used to recommend trade policy makers on the implementation of the EU Association Free-Trade Agreement with Ukraine. The main findings reveal that, the income of Ukraine, the income of the EU-28 trading partners, distance but also income differences between Ukraine and its trading partners (Linder hypothesis), and the real exchange rate are important determinants of international trade. These results are robust to different trade specification functions of the augmented gravity model of international trade.Estudamos os principais determinantes dos fluxos de comércio internacional de mercadorias entre a Ucrânia e os países membros da UE-28 no período 1995-2017. Estimamos o modelo de gravidade aumentada do comércio internacional com robustos Quadrados Mínimos Ordinários (QMO) e Poisson (PPML), e o PPML com efeitos fixos também estima as elasticidades do comércio para as funções de comércio total, exportações e importações. Os resultados da regressão são utilizados para recomendar os decisores políticos comerciais sobre a implementação do Acordo de Comércio Livre da Associação com a Ucrânia. As principais conclusões revelam que o rendimento da Ucrânia, o rendimento dos parceiros comerciais da UE-28, distância, mas também as diferenças de rendimento entre a Ucrânia e os seus parceiros comerciais (hipótese de Linder) e a taxa de câmbio real são determinantes importantes do comércio internacional. Estes resultados são robustos para diferentes funções de especificação comercial do modelo de gravidade aumentada do comércio internacional.2019-07-11T13:27:32Z2019-05-27T00:00:00Z2019-05-27info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10773/26286engFlorindo, Emmanuel Fernandesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-02-22T11:50:55Zoai:ria.ua.pt:10773/26286Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T02:59:19.337105Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approach
title Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approach
spellingShingle Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approach
Florindo, Emmanuel Fernandes
Gravity model
Augmented gravity model
Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator
Panel data
Ukraine
European Union
EU-28,
Foreign trade
Total trade
Exports
Imports
title_short Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approach
title_full Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approach
title_fullStr Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approach
title_full_unstemmed Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approach
title_sort Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approach
author Florindo, Emmanuel Fernandes
author_facet Florindo, Emmanuel Fernandes
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Florindo, Emmanuel Fernandes
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Gravity model
Augmented gravity model
Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator
Panel data
Ukraine
European Union
EU-28,
Foreign trade
Total trade
Exports
Imports
topic Gravity model
Augmented gravity model
Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator
Panel data
Ukraine
European Union
EU-28,
Foreign trade
Total trade
Exports
Imports
description We study the main determinants of international trade flows in goods between Ukraine and the EU-28 member states in the period 1995-2017. We estimate the augmented gravity model of international trade with robust Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Poisson (PPML), and PPML with fixed effects too estimate trade elasticities for total trade, exports and imports functions. The regression results are used to recommend trade policy makers on the implementation of the EU Association Free-Trade Agreement with Ukraine. The main findings reveal that, the income of Ukraine, the income of the EU-28 trading partners, distance but also income differences between Ukraine and its trading partners (Linder hypothesis), and the real exchange rate are important determinants of international trade. These results are robust to different trade specification functions of the augmented gravity model of international trade.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019-07-11T13:27:32Z
2019-05-27T00:00:00Z
2019-05-27
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10773/26286
url http://hdl.handle.net/10773/26286
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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