Modelling conditional and unconditional heteroskedasticity with smoothly time-varying structure

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Amado, Cristina
Data de Publicação: 2008
Outros Autores: Teräsvirta, Timo
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/7674
Resumo: Material from this paper has been presented at the International Symposium on Econometric Theory and Applications, Xiamen, April 2006; 5th Annual International Conference Forecasting Financial Markets and Economic Decision-making, Lodz, May 2006; 13th International Conference on Forecasting Financial Markets, Marseille, May-June 2006; 26th International Symposium on Forecasting, Santander, June 2006; Workshop Volatility day, Stockholm, November 2006; Nordic Econometric Meeting, Tartu, May 2007; Symposium on "Long Memory", Aarhus, June-July 2007; LACEA-LAMES, Bogotá, October 2007; and at the seminars at Banca d’Italia, Rome, European University Institute, Florence, Humboldt University, Berlin, University of Minho, Braga, Stockholm School of Economics, Leonard N. Stern School of Business at New York University, and University of Vilnius. We would like to thank the articipants at these occasions for their comments, and Stefan Lundbergh, Mika Meitz, Anders Rahbek and Esther Ruiz for useful discussions and suggestions. The responsibility for any errors and hortcomings in this article remains ours.
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spelling Modelling conditional and unconditional heteroskedasticity with smoothly time-varying structureConditional heteroskedasticityStructural changeLagrange multiplier testMisspecification testNonlinear time seriesTime-varying parameter modelMaterial from this paper has been presented at the International Symposium on Econometric Theory and Applications, Xiamen, April 2006; 5th Annual International Conference Forecasting Financial Markets and Economic Decision-making, Lodz, May 2006; 13th International Conference on Forecasting Financial Markets, Marseille, May-June 2006; 26th International Symposium on Forecasting, Santander, June 2006; Workshop Volatility day, Stockholm, November 2006; Nordic Econometric Meeting, Tartu, May 2007; Symposium on "Long Memory", Aarhus, June-July 2007; LACEA-LAMES, Bogotá, October 2007; and at the seminars at Banca d’Italia, Rome, European University Institute, Florence, Humboldt University, Berlin, University of Minho, Braga, Stockholm School of Economics, Leonard N. Stern School of Business at New York University, and University of Vilnius. We would like to thank the articipants at these occasions for their comments, and Stefan Lundbergh, Mika Meitz, Anders Rahbek and Esther Ruiz for useful discussions and suggestions. The responsibility for any errors and hortcomings in this article remains ours.In this paper, we propose two parametric alternatives to the standard GARCH model. They allow the conditional variance to have a smooth time-varying structure of either additive or multiplicative type. The suggested parameterizations describe both nonlinearity and structural change in the conditional and unconditional variances where the transition between regimes over time is smooth. A modelling strategy for these new time-varying parameter GARCH models is developed. It relies on a sequence of Lagrange multiplier tests, and the adequacy of the estimated models is investigated by Lagrange multiplier type misspecification tests. Finite-sample properties of these procedures and tests are examined by simulation. An empirical application to daily stock returns and another one to daily exchange rate returns illustrate the functioning and properties of our modelling strategy in practice. The results show that the long memory type behaviour of the sample autocorrelation functions of the absolute returns can also be explained by deterministic changes in the unconditional variance.This research has been supported by the Danish National Research Foundation. NIPE – Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas – is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology through the Programa Operacional Ciência e Inovação 2010 (POCI 2010) of the III Quadro Comunitário de Apoio (QCA III), which is financed by FEDER and Portuguese funds.Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)Universidade do MinhoAmado, CristinaTeräsvirta, Timo2008-012008-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/1822/7674engNIPE Working Paper series; 3info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-21T12:23:44Zoai:repositorium.sdum.uminho.pt:1822/7674Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T19:17:33.384449Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Modelling conditional and unconditional heteroskedasticity with smoothly time-varying structure
title Modelling conditional and unconditional heteroskedasticity with smoothly time-varying structure
spellingShingle Modelling conditional and unconditional heteroskedasticity with smoothly time-varying structure
Amado, Cristina
Conditional heteroskedasticity
Structural change
Lagrange multiplier test
Misspecification test
Nonlinear time series
Time-varying parameter model
title_short Modelling conditional and unconditional heteroskedasticity with smoothly time-varying structure
title_full Modelling conditional and unconditional heteroskedasticity with smoothly time-varying structure
title_fullStr Modelling conditional and unconditional heteroskedasticity with smoothly time-varying structure
title_full_unstemmed Modelling conditional and unconditional heteroskedasticity with smoothly time-varying structure
title_sort Modelling conditional and unconditional heteroskedasticity with smoothly time-varying structure
author Amado, Cristina
author_facet Amado, Cristina
Teräsvirta, Timo
author_role author
author2 Teräsvirta, Timo
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidade do Minho
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Amado, Cristina
Teräsvirta, Timo
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Conditional heteroskedasticity
Structural change
Lagrange multiplier test
Misspecification test
Nonlinear time series
Time-varying parameter model
topic Conditional heteroskedasticity
Structural change
Lagrange multiplier test
Misspecification test
Nonlinear time series
Time-varying parameter model
description Material from this paper has been presented at the International Symposium on Econometric Theory and Applications, Xiamen, April 2006; 5th Annual International Conference Forecasting Financial Markets and Economic Decision-making, Lodz, May 2006; 13th International Conference on Forecasting Financial Markets, Marseille, May-June 2006; 26th International Symposium on Forecasting, Santander, June 2006; Workshop Volatility day, Stockholm, November 2006; Nordic Econometric Meeting, Tartu, May 2007; Symposium on "Long Memory", Aarhus, June-July 2007; LACEA-LAMES, Bogotá, October 2007; and at the seminars at Banca d’Italia, Rome, European University Institute, Florence, Humboldt University, Berlin, University of Minho, Braga, Stockholm School of Economics, Leonard N. Stern School of Business at New York University, and University of Vilnius. We would like to thank the articipants at these occasions for their comments, and Stefan Lundbergh, Mika Meitz, Anders Rahbek and Esther Ruiz for useful discussions and suggestions. The responsibility for any errors and hortcomings in this article remains ours.
publishDate 2008
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2008-01
2008-01-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/1822/7674
url http://hdl.handle.net/1822/7674
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv NIPE Working Paper series; 3
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
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