Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/1822/66726 |
Resumo: | Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (https ://doi.org/10.1007/s1112 7-019-00647 -x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users |
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Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinityPolitical budget cyclesCountercyclical policiesGovernment deficitPolitical opportunismLocal governmentsPortugalCiências Sociais::Economia e GestãoSocial SciencesD72E32E62H62H63Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (https ://doi.org/10.1007/s1112 7-019-00647 -x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized usersIn the literature, it has been suggested that political budget cycles are context-conditional, i.e., do not occur in all countries or under all circumstances. What about the underlying economic conditions? It has already has been shown that recessionary expectations reinforce the political budget cycle. This paper argues theoretically that opportunistic policymakers expecting a recession during an election year allow the primary deficit to increase even more when the stock of debt is very high, but reduce the deficit by more during an expected boom (in an election year). For the empirical estimation we use panel data from Portuguese municipalities. Plots of average marginal effects for election years show that differences between high- and low-debt municipalities become more pronounced in stronger expected recessions as well as booms; the stronger effect on the deficit in highdebt municipalities is caused by changes on both the revenue and the expenditure side. A whole armada of robustness tests (non-linear effects, alternative specifications of excessive debt and forecasts, various methods to account for time effects and clustering, several sample restrictions) confirms our results.Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT)SpringerUniversidade do MinhoBohn, FrankVeiga, Francisco José20192019-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/1822/66726engBohn, F., Veiga, F.J. Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity. Public Choice 180, 429–449 (2019). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-019-00647-x0048-582910.1007/s11127-019-00647-xhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11127-019-00647-xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-21T12:38:06Zoai:repositorium.sdum.uminho.pt:1822/66726Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T19:34:28.977382Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity |
title |
Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity |
spellingShingle |
Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity Bohn, Frank Political budget cycles Countercyclical policies Government deficit Political opportunism Local governments Portugal Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão Social Sciences D72 E32 E62 H62 H63 |
title_short |
Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity |
title_full |
Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity |
title_fullStr |
Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity |
title_full_unstemmed |
Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity |
title_sort |
Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity |
author |
Bohn, Frank |
author_facet |
Bohn, Frank Veiga, Francisco José |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Veiga, Francisco José |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade do Minho |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Bohn, Frank Veiga, Francisco José |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Political budget cycles Countercyclical policies Government deficit Political opportunism Local governments Portugal Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão Social Sciences D72 E32 E62 H62 H63 |
topic |
Political budget cycles Countercyclical policies Government deficit Political opportunism Local governments Portugal Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão Social Sciences D72 E32 E62 H62 H63 |
description |
Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (https ://doi.org/10.1007/s1112 7-019-00647 -x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/1822/66726 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1822/66726 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Bohn, F., Veiga, F.J. Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity. Public Choice 180, 429–449 (2019). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-019-00647-x 0048-5829 10.1007/s11127-019-00647-x https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11127-019-00647-x |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Springer |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Springer |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799132866633793536 |