Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approach
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10773/26286 |
Resumo: | We study the main determinants of international trade flows in goods between Ukraine and the EU-28 member states in the period 1995-2017. We estimate the augmented gravity model of international trade with robust Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Poisson (PPML), and PPML with fixed effects too estimate trade elasticities for total trade, exports and imports functions. The regression results are used to recommend trade policy makers on the implementation of the EU Association Free-Trade Agreement with Ukraine. The main findings reveal that, the income of Ukraine, the income of the EU-28 trading partners, distance but also income differences between Ukraine and its trading partners (Linder hypothesis), and the real exchange rate are important determinants of international trade. These results are robust to different trade specification functions of the augmented gravity model of international trade. |
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Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approachGravity modelAugmented gravity modelPoisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimatorPanel dataUkraineEuropean UnionEU-28,Foreign tradeTotal tradeExportsImportsWe study the main determinants of international trade flows in goods between Ukraine and the EU-28 member states in the period 1995-2017. We estimate the augmented gravity model of international trade with robust Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Poisson (PPML), and PPML with fixed effects too estimate trade elasticities for total trade, exports and imports functions. The regression results are used to recommend trade policy makers on the implementation of the EU Association Free-Trade Agreement with Ukraine. The main findings reveal that, the income of Ukraine, the income of the EU-28 trading partners, distance but also income differences between Ukraine and its trading partners (Linder hypothesis), and the real exchange rate are important determinants of international trade. These results are robust to different trade specification functions of the augmented gravity model of international trade.Estudamos os principais determinantes dos fluxos de comércio internacional de mercadorias entre a Ucrânia e os países membros da UE-28 no período 1995-2017. Estimamos o modelo de gravidade aumentada do comércio internacional com robustos Quadrados Mínimos Ordinários (QMO) e Poisson (PPML), e o PPML com efeitos fixos também estima as elasticidades do comércio para as funções de comércio total, exportações e importações. Os resultados da regressão são utilizados para recomendar os decisores políticos comerciais sobre a implementação do Acordo de Comércio Livre da Associação com a Ucrânia. As principais conclusões revelam que o rendimento da Ucrânia, o rendimento dos parceiros comerciais da UE-28, distância, mas também as diferenças de rendimento entre a Ucrânia e os seus parceiros comerciais (hipótese de Linder) e a taxa de câmbio real são determinantes importantes do comércio internacional. Estes resultados são robustos para diferentes funções de especificação comercial do modelo de gravidade aumentada do comércio internacional.2019-07-11T13:27:32Z2019-05-27T00:00:00Z2019-05-27info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10773/26286engFlorindo, Emmanuel Fernandesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-02-22T11:50:55Zoai:ria.ua.pt:10773/26286Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T02:59:19.337105Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approach |
title |
Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approach |
spellingShingle |
Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approach Florindo, Emmanuel Fernandes Gravity model Augmented gravity model Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator Panel data Ukraine European Union EU-28, Foreign trade Total trade Exports Imports |
title_short |
Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approach |
title_full |
Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approach |
title_fullStr |
Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approach |
title_sort |
Analysing Ukraine’s bilateral trade flows in goods with the European Union: a gravity model approach |
author |
Florindo, Emmanuel Fernandes |
author_facet |
Florindo, Emmanuel Fernandes |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Florindo, Emmanuel Fernandes |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Gravity model Augmented gravity model Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator Panel data Ukraine European Union EU-28, Foreign trade Total trade Exports Imports |
topic |
Gravity model Augmented gravity model Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator Panel data Ukraine European Union EU-28, Foreign trade Total trade Exports Imports |
description |
We study the main determinants of international trade flows in goods between Ukraine and the EU-28 member states in the period 1995-2017. We estimate the augmented gravity model of international trade with robust Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Poisson (PPML), and PPML with fixed effects too estimate trade elasticities for total trade, exports and imports functions. The regression results are used to recommend trade policy makers on the implementation of the EU Association Free-Trade Agreement with Ukraine. The main findings reveal that, the income of Ukraine, the income of the EU-28 trading partners, distance but also income differences between Ukraine and its trading partners (Linder hypothesis), and the real exchange rate are important determinants of international trade. These results are robust to different trade specification functions of the augmented gravity model of international trade. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-07-11T13:27:32Z 2019-05-27T00:00:00Z 2019-05-27 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10773/26286 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10773/26286 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799137647347630080 |