Identification of patients with very low risk of transition to severity in confirmed covid-19. Cuba. March 2020-May 2021

• Autor(a) principal: Monzón-Peréz, Maicel
• Data de Publicação: 2023
• Outros Autores: Sanchez-Valdés, Lizet, Lage-Dávila , Agustín
• Tipo de documento: preprint
• Idioma: spa
• Título da fonte: SciELO Preprints
• Texto Completo: https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/5760
• topic: covid-19; sars cov-2; triage; previsão; covid-19; sarcs cov-2; triage; prognosis; covid-19; sars cov-2; triage; pronostico

Introduction: Covid-19 pandemic, threatened health worldwide, and overhelmed systemshealthcare in many countries. Performing and adequate identification of subjects with verylow risk to develop a severe form of the disease must result very cost-effective.Objective: To identify patients with very low risk of transition to severity in subjectsconfirmed with Covid-19 in Cuba.Methods: An environmental study was carried out based on the Cuban National Registerof confirmed Subjects covid-19. Between march 11th, 2020 and may 31st 2021, 10600persons were recorded. Admission in ICU and mortality related to covid-19, both measured30 days after disease confirmation, were the variables analyzed. As predictors, age and comorbidities were chosen. A classification tree – algorithm was applied to identify risk strata. To every stratum, its volume, the risk of transition to severity and the explained risk were calculated.Results: Subjects less than 65 years with no comorbidities (85,8% of the total) had a verylow risk (0,2%) of admission in ICU and death. Adjusted models showed a good calibration and discriminant ability.Conclusions: The study allowed the identification of subjects with very low risk of transition to severity. They could be followed by primary health care units with home surveillance and symptomatic treatment. The approaches used, permit the improvement of assigning admissions to different health care units’ optimizing limited health resources.