Identification of patients with very low risk of transition to severity in confirmed covid-19. Cuba. March 2020-May 2021

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Monzón-Peréz, Maicel
Data de Publicação: 2023
Outros Autores: Sanchez-Valdés, Lizet, Lage-Dávila , Agustín
Tipo de documento: preprint
Idioma: spa
Título da fonte: SciELO Preprints
Texto Completo: https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/5760
Resumo: Introduction: Covid-19 pandemic, threatened health worldwide, and overhelmed systemshealthcare in many countries. Performing and adequate identification of subjects with verylow risk to develop a severe form of the disease must result very cost-effective.Objective: To identify patients with very low risk of transition to severity in subjectsconfirmed with Covid-19 in Cuba.Methods: An environmental study was carried out based on the Cuban National Registerof confirmed Subjects covid-19. Between march 11th, 2020 and may 31st 2021, 10600persons were recorded. Admission in ICU and mortality related to covid-19, both measured30 days after disease confirmation, were the variables analyzed. As predictors, age and comorbidities were chosen. A classification tree – algorithm was applied to identify risk strata. To every stratum, its volume, the risk of transition to severity and the explained risk were calculated.Results: Subjects less than 65 years with no comorbidities (85,8% of the total) had a verylow risk (0,2%) of admission in ICU and death. Adjusted models showed a good calibration and discriminant ability.Conclusions: The study allowed the identification of subjects with very low risk of transition to severity. They could be followed by primary health care units with home surveillance and symptomatic treatment. The approaches used, permit the improvement of assigning admissions to different health care units’ optimizing limited health resources.
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spelling Identification of patients with very low risk of transition to severity in confirmed covid-19. Cuba. March 2020-May 2021Identificación de pacientes de muy bajo riesgo de transición a la severidad en confirmados de covid-19. Cuba. 2020- 2021Identificação de pacientes com baixíssimo risco de transição para gravidade em casos confirmados de covid-19. Cuba. 2020-2021covid-19sars cov-2triageprevisãocovid-19sarcs cov-2triageprognosiscovid-19sars cov-2triagepronosticoIntroduction: Covid-19 pandemic, threatened health worldwide, and overhelmed systemshealthcare in many countries. Performing and adequate identification of subjects with verylow risk to develop a severe form of the disease must result very cost-effective.Objective: To identify patients with very low risk of transition to severity in subjectsconfirmed with Covid-19 in Cuba.Methods: An environmental study was carried out based on the Cuban National Registerof confirmed Subjects covid-19. Between march 11th, 2020 and may 31st 2021, 10600persons were recorded. Admission in ICU and mortality related to covid-19, both measured30 days after disease confirmation, were the variables analyzed. As predictors, age and comorbidities were chosen. A classification tree – algorithm was applied to identify risk strata. To every stratum, its volume, the risk of transition to severity and the explained risk were calculated.Results: Subjects less than 65 years with no comorbidities (85,8% of the total) had a verylow risk (0,2%) of admission in ICU and death. Adjusted models showed a good calibration and discriminant ability.Conclusions: The study allowed the identification of subjects with very low risk of transition to severity. They could be followed by primary health care units with home surveillance and symptomatic treatment. The approaches used, permit the improvement of assigning admissions to different health care units’ optimizing limited health resources.Introducción: La pandemia de covid-19, amenaza para la salud mundial, desbordó los sistemas de salud en muchos países. Realizar una adecuada clasificación del riesgo de transmisión resulta de vital importancia. Objetivo: Identificar pacientes con muy bajo riesgo de transición a la severidad en pacientes  confirmados de covid-19 en Cuba. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio ecológico  que tuvo como base el registro nacional de pacientes confirmados de covid-19.  Se analizaron  10600 individuos entre el 11 de marzo de 2020 y el 31 de mayo de 2021. Las variables de respuesta seleccionadas fueron admisión en UCI y mortalidad, ambas medidas a los 30 días de la confirmación de la enfermedad. Los predictores fueron la edad  y la presencia de comorbilidades.  Se aplicó  un algoritmo de árboles de clasificación para identificar estratos de riego. Se determinó para cada estrato, su volumen, el riesgo de transición a la severidad y el riesgo explicado. Resultados: Se comprobó que los pacientes con  edad menor de 65 años y sin comorbilidades, que concentraba el 86,8% de la muestra, tenían muy bajo riesgo (0,2%)  de  admisión en UCI y de muerte. Los modelos demostraron una buena calibración y discriminación. Conclusiones: El estudio permitió identificar individuos con muy bajo riesgo de transición a la severidad seguidos desde la atención primaria de salud con  ingreso en el hogar y tratamiento sintomático. La metodología propuesta basado en la evidencia permitió perfeccionar los procedimientos de derivación hacia los distintos escenarios  y priorizar recursos de salud limitados.  Introdução: A pandemia de covid-19, uma ameaça global à saúde, sobrecarregou os sistemas de saúde de muitos países. A realização de uma classificação adequada do risco de transmissão é de vital importância. Objetivo: Identificar pacientes com baixíssimo risco de transição para gravidade em pacientes confirmados com covid-19 em Cuba. Métodos: Foi realizado um estudo ecológico com base no registro nacional de pacientes confirmados com covid-19. Foram analisados ​​10.600 indivíduos entre 11 de março de 2020 e 31 de maio de 2021. As variáveis ​​de resposta selecionadas foram admissão na UTI e mortalidade, ambas medidas 30 dias após a confirmação da doença. Os preditores foram idade e presença de comorbidades. Um algoritmo de árvore de classificação foi aplicado para identificar os estratos de irrigação. Foi determinado para cada estrato, o seu volume, o risco de transição para gravidade e o risco explicado.Resultados: Verificou-se que os pacientes com menos de 65 anos e sem comorbidades, que perfizeram 86,8% da amostra, apresentaram risco muito baixo (0,2%) de internação em UTI e óbito. Os modelos demonstraram boa calibração e discriminação.Conclusões: O estudo permitiu identificar indivíduos com baixíssimo risco de transição para a gravidade seguidos de cuidados de saúde primários com internamento domiciliário e tratamento sintomático. A metodologia baseada em evidências proposta permitiu refinar os procedimentos de encaminhamento para os diferentes cenários e priorizar os recursos de saúde limitados.SciELO PreprintsSciELO PreprintsSciELO Preprints2023-03-28info:eu-repo/semantics/preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/576010.1590/SciELOPreprints.5760spahttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/article/view/5760/11150Copyright (c) 2023 Maicel Monzón-Peréz, Lizet Sanchez-Valdés, Agustín Lage-Dávila https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMonzón-Peréz, MaicelSanchez-Valdés, LizetLage-Dávila , Agustínreponame:SciELO Preprintsinstname:Scientific Electronic Library Online (SCIELO)instacron:SCI2023-03-21T20:35:38Zoai:ops.preprints.scielo.org:preprint/5760Servidor de preprintshttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scieloONGhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/oaiscielo.submission@scielo.orgopendoar:2023-03-21T20:35:38SciELO Preprints - Scientific Electronic Library Online (SCIELO)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Identification of patients with very low risk of transition to severity in confirmed covid-19. Cuba. March 2020-May 2021
Identificación de pacientes de muy bajo riesgo de transición a la severidad en confirmados de covid-19. Cuba. 2020- 2021
Identificação de pacientes com baixíssimo risco de transição para gravidade em casos confirmados de covid-19. Cuba. 2020-2021
title Identification of patients with very low risk of transition to severity in confirmed covid-19. Cuba. March 2020-May 2021
spellingShingle Identification of patients with very low risk of transition to severity in confirmed covid-19. Cuba. March 2020-May 2021
Monzón-Peréz, Maicel
covid-19
sars cov-2
triage
previsão
covid-19
sarcs cov-2
triage
prognosis
covid-19
sars cov-2
triage
pronostico
title_short Identification of patients with very low risk of transition to severity in confirmed covid-19. Cuba. March 2020-May 2021
title_full Identification of patients with very low risk of transition to severity in confirmed covid-19. Cuba. March 2020-May 2021
title_fullStr Identification of patients with very low risk of transition to severity in confirmed covid-19. Cuba. March 2020-May 2021
title_full_unstemmed Identification of patients with very low risk of transition to severity in confirmed covid-19. Cuba. March 2020-May 2021
title_sort Identification of patients with very low risk of transition to severity in confirmed covid-19. Cuba. March 2020-May 2021
author Monzón-Peréz, Maicel
author_facet Monzón-Peréz, Maicel
Sanchez-Valdés, Lizet
Lage-Dávila , Agustín
author_role author
author2 Sanchez-Valdés, Lizet
Lage-Dávila , Agustín
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Monzón-Peréz, Maicel
Sanchez-Valdés, Lizet
Lage-Dávila , Agustín
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv covid-19
sars cov-2
triage
previsão
covid-19
sarcs cov-2
triage
prognosis
covid-19
sars cov-2
triage
pronostico
topic covid-19
sars cov-2
triage
previsão
covid-19
sarcs cov-2
triage
prognosis
covid-19
sars cov-2
triage
pronostico
description Introduction: Covid-19 pandemic, threatened health worldwide, and overhelmed systemshealthcare in many countries. Performing and adequate identification of subjects with verylow risk to develop a severe form of the disease must result very cost-effective.Objective: To identify patients with very low risk of transition to severity in subjectsconfirmed with Covid-19 in Cuba.Methods: An environmental study was carried out based on the Cuban National Registerof confirmed Subjects covid-19. Between march 11th, 2020 and may 31st 2021, 10600persons were recorded. Admission in ICU and mortality related to covid-19, both measured30 days after disease confirmation, were the variables analyzed. As predictors, age and comorbidities were chosen. A classification tree – algorithm was applied to identify risk strata. To every stratum, its volume, the risk of transition to severity and the explained risk were calculated.Results: Subjects less than 65 years with no comorbidities (85,8% of the total) had a verylow risk (0,2%) of admission in ICU and death. Adjusted models showed a good calibration and discriminant ability.Conclusions: The study allowed the identification of subjects with very low risk of transition to severity. They could be followed by primary health care units with home surveillance and symptomatic treatment. The approaches used, permit the improvement of assigning admissions to different health care units’ optimizing limited health resources.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-03-28
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dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/5760
10.1590/SciELOPreprints.5760
url https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/5760
identifier_str_mv 10.1590/SciELOPreprints.5760
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv spa
language spa
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/article/view/5760/11150
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2023 Maicel Monzón-Peréz, Lizet Sanchez-Valdés, Agustín Lage-Dávila
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2023 Maicel Monzón-Peréz, Lizet Sanchez-Valdés, Agustín Lage-Dávila
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
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SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
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instname_str Scientific Electronic Library Online (SCIELO)
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