CENTRAL BANK COMMUNICATION, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY: EVIDENCES FOR BRAZIL

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Montes, Gabriel Caldas
Data de Publicação: 2016
Outros Autores: Nicolay, Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Análise Econômica (Online)
Texto Completo: https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/43537
Resumo: Studies on Central Bank communication, in emerging countries, are still scarce. There are no studies for the Brazilian case about the influence of communication on inflation expectations and therefore on inflation. Therefore, this paper analyzes the influence of the communication of the Brazilian monetary authority on inflation expectations and on inflation and, thus, aims to verify whether such communicates of the monetary authority have a character of self-fulfilling prophecy. The study contributes to the literature since it develops – using the theory of fuzzy sets – a new index of communication, and identifies a paradoxical situation here called the “paradox of communication”. The results suggest that the central bank’s communication is able to present an adverse effect on inflation expectations and on inflation itself when it states the possibility of losing control of inflation.
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spelling CENTRAL BANK COMMUNICATION, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY: EVIDENCES FOR BRAZILCOMUNICAÇÃO DO BANCO CENTRAL, EXPECTATIVAS DE INFLAÇÃO E PROFECIA AUTORREALIZÁVEL: EVIDÊNCIAS PARA O BRASILCommunicationInflation expectationCentral BankMonetary policySelf-fulfilling prophecyE31E52E58ComunicaçãoExpectativa de inflaçãoBanco CentralPolítica monetáriaProfecia autorrealizávelE31E52E58Studies on Central Bank communication, in emerging countries, are still scarce. There are no studies for the Brazilian case about the influence of communication on inflation expectations and therefore on inflation. Therefore, this paper analyzes the influence of the communication of the Brazilian monetary authority on inflation expectations and on inflation and, thus, aims to verify whether such communicates of the monetary authority have a character of self-fulfilling prophecy. The study contributes to the literature since it develops – using the theory of fuzzy sets – a new index of communication, and identifies a paradoxical situation here called the “paradox of communication”. The results suggest that the central bank’s communication is able to present an adverse effect on inflation expectations and on inflation itself when it states the possibility of losing control of inflation.Estudos sobre comunicação do Banco Central, em países emergentes, ainda são escassos. Não existe, para o caso brasileiro, estudo acerca da influência da comunicação sobre as expectativas de inflação e, consequentemente, sobre a inflação. Portanto, este trabalho analisa a influência da comunicação da autoridade monetária brasileira sobre as expectativas de inflação e sobre a inflação e verifica se os comunicados da autoridade monetária possuem um caráter de profecia autorrealizável. O estudo contribui com a literatura ao elaborar – utilizando a teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy – um novo índice de comunicação e ao identificar uma situação paradoxal denominada de “paradoxo da comunicação”. Os resultados sugerem que a comunicação do Banco Central é capaz de apresentar um efeito adverso sobre as expectativas de inflação e sobre a própria inflação quando indica que há alto grau de perda de controle da inflação.UFRGS2016-09-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/4353710.22456/2176-5456.43537Análise Econômica; Vol. 34 No. 66 (2016): setembro de 2016Análise Econômica; v. 34 n. 66 (2016): setembro de 20162176-54560102-9924reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)instacron:UFRGSporhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/43537/38537Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômicainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMontes, Gabriel CaldasNicolay, Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca2016-09-19T20:05:29Zoai:seer.ufrgs.br:article/43537Revistahttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomicaPUBhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/oai||rae@ufrgs.br2176-54560102-9924opendoar:2016-09-19T20:05:29Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv CENTRAL BANK COMMUNICATION, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY: EVIDENCES FOR BRAZIL
COMUNICAÇÃO DO BANCO CENTRAL, EXPECTATIVAS DE INFLAÇÃO E PROFECIA AUTORREALIZÁVEL: EVIDÊNCIAS PARA O BRASIL
title CENTRAL BANK COMMUNICATION, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY: EVIDENCES FOR BRAZIL
spellingShingle CENTRAL BANK COMMUNICATION, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY: EVIDENCES FOR BRAZIL
Montes, Gabriel Caldas
Communication
Inflation expectation
Central Bank
Monetary policy
Self-fulfilling prophecy
E31
E52
E58
Comunicação
Expectativa de inflação
Banco Central
Política monetária
Profecia autorrealizável
E31
E52
E58
title_short CENTRAL BANK COMMUNICATION, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY: EVIDENCES FOR BRAZIL
title_full CENTRAL BANK COMMUNICATION, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY: EVIDENCES FOR BRAZIL
title_fullStr CENTRAL BANK COMMUNICATION, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY: EVIDENCES FOR BRAZIL
title_full_unstemmed CENTRAL BANK COMMUNICATION, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY: EVIDENCES FOR BRAZIL
title_sort CENTRAL BANK COMMUNICATION, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY: EVIDENCES FOR BRAZIL
author Montes, Gabriel Caldas
author_facet Montes, Gabriel Caldas
Nicolay, Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca
author_role author
author2 Nicolay, Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Montes, Gabriel Caldas
Nicolay, Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Communication
Inflation expectation
Central Bank
Monetary policy
Self-fulfilling prophecy
E31
E52
E58
Comunicação
Expectativa de inflação
Banco Central
Política monetária
Profecia autorrealizável
E31
E52
E58
topic Communication
Inflation expectation
Central Bank
Monetary policy
Self-fulfilling prophecy
E31
E52
E58
Comunicação
Expectativa de inflação
Banco Central
Política monetária
Profecia autorrealizável
E31
E52
E58
description Studies on Central Bank communication, in emerging countries, are still scarce. There are no studies for the Brazilian case about the influence of communication on inflation expectations and therefore on inflation. Therefore, this paper analyzes the influence of the communication of the Brazilian monetary authority on inflation expectations and on inflation and, thus, aims to verify whether such communicates of the monetary authority have a character of self-fulfilling prophecy. The study contributes to the literature since it develops – using the theory of fuzzy sets – a new index of communication, and identifies a paradoxical situation here called the “paradox of communication”. The results suggest that the central bank’s communication is able to present an adverse effect on inflation expectations and on inflation itself when it states the possibility of losing control of inflation.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016-09-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/43537
10.22456/2176-5456.43537
url https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/43537
identifier_str_mv 10.22456/2176-5456.43537
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/43537/38537
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv UFRGS
publisher.none.fl_str_mv UFRGS
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Análise Econômica; Vol. 34 No. 66 (2016): setembro de 2016
Análise Econômica; v. 34 n. 66 (2016): setembro de 2016
2176-5456
0102-9924
reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)
instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
instacron:UFRGS
instname_str Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
instacron_str UFRGS
institution UFRGS
reponame_str Análise Econômica (Online)
collection Análise Econômica (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||rae@ufrgs.br
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