Introducing non-stationarity into the development of intensity-duration-frequency curves under a changing climate
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFRGS |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10183/233993 |
Resumo: | Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships are traditional tools in water infrastructure planning and design. IDFs are developed under a stationarity assumption which may not be realistic, neither in the present nor in the future, under a changing climatic condition. This paper introduces a framework for generating non-stationary IDFs under climate change, assuming that probability of occurrence of quantiles changes over time. Using Extreme Value Theory, eight trend combinations in Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) parameters using time as covariate are compared with a stationary GEV, to identify the best alternative. Additionally, a modified Equidistance Quantile Matching (EQMNS) method is implemented to develop IDFs for future conditions, introducing non-stationarity where justified, based on the Global Climate Models (GCM). The methodology is applied for Moncton and Shearwater gauges in Northeast Canada. From the results, it is observed that EQMNS is able to capture the trends in the present and to translate them to estimated future rainfall intensities. Comparison of present and future IDFs strongly suggest that return period can be reduced by more than 50 years in the estimates of future rainfall intensities (e.g., historical 100-yr return period extreme rainfall may have frequency smaller than 50-yr under future conditions), raising attention to emerging risks to water infrastructure systems. |
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Silva, Daniele FeitozaSimonovic, Slobodan P.Schardong, AndréGoldenfum, Joel Avruch2022-01-12T04:36:53Z20212073-4441http://hdl.handle.net/10183/233993001126616Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships are traditional tools in water infrastructure planning and design. IDFs are developed under a stationarity assumption which may not be realistic, neither in the present nor in the future, under a changing climatic condition. This paper introduces a framework for generating non-stationary IDFs under climate change, assuming that probability of occurrence of quantiles changes over time. Using Extreme Value Theory, eight trend combinations in Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) parameters using time as covariate are compared with a stationary GEV, to identify the best alternative. Additionally, a modified Equidistance Quantile Matching (EQMNS) method is implemented to develop IDFs for future conditions, introducing non-stationarity where justified, based on the Global Climate Models (GCM). The methodology is applied for Moncton and Shearwater gauges in Northeast Canada. From the results, it is observed that EQMNS is able to capture the trends in the present and to translate them to estimated future rainfall intensities. Comparison of present and future IDFs strongly suggest that return period can be reduced by more than 50 years in the estimates of future rainfall intensities (e.g., historical 100-yr return period extreme rainfall may have frequency smaller than 50-yr under future conditions), raising attention to emerging risks to water infrastructure systems.application/pdfengWater. Basel [Switzerland]. Vol. 13, n. 8 (Apr.-2 2021), [Article] 1008, 22 p.Curvas IDFChuvaTeoria dos valores extremosMudanças climáticasCanadáIntensity-duration-frequency curveNon-stationarityClimate changeRainfall intensitiesIntroducing non-stationarity into the development of intensity-duration-frequency curves under a changing climateEstrangeiroinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFRGSinstname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)instacron:UFRGSTEXT001126616.pdf.txt001126616.pdf.txtExtracted Texttext/plain66771http://www.lume.ufrgs.br/bitstream/10183/233993/2/001126616.pdf.txt4760893c3d2e039f0441f1c3611fbba7MD52ORIGINAL001126616.pdfTexto completo (inglês)application/pdf5545714http://www.lume.ufrgs.br/bitstream/10183/233993/1/001126616.pdf445d5fe4105142e612747acd979017dfMD5110183/2339932022-02-22 05:09:33.363126oai:www.lume.ufrgs.br:10183/233993Repositório de PublicaçõesPUBhttps://lume.ufrgs.br/oai/requestopendoar:2022-02-22T08:09:33Repositório Institucional da UFRGS - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Introducing non-stationarity into the development of intensity-duration-frequency curves under a changing climate |
title |
Introducing non-stationarity into the development of intensity-duration-frequency curves under a changing climate |
spellingShingle |
Introducing non-stationarity into the development of intensity-duration-frequency curves under a changing climate Silva, Daniele Feitoza Curvas IDF Chuva Teoria dos valores extremos Mudanças climáticas Canadá Intensity-duration-frequency curve Non-stationarity Climate change Rainfall intensities |
title_short |
Introducing non-stationarity into the development of intensity-duration-frequency curves under a changing climate |
title_full |
Introducing non-stationarity into the development of intensity-duration-frequency curves under a changing climate |
title_fullStr |
Introducing non-stationarity into the development of intensity-duration-frequency curves under a changing climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Introducing non-stationarity into the development of intensity-duration-frequency curves under a changing climate |
title_sort |
Introducing non-stationarity into the development of intensity-duration-frequency curves under a changing climate |
author |
Silva, Daniele Feitoza |
author_facet |
Silva, Daniele Feitoza Simonovic, Slobodan P. Schardong, André Goldenfum, Joel Avruch |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Simonovic, Slobodan P. Schardong, André Goldenfum, Joel Avruch |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Silva, Daniele Feitoza Simonovic, Slobodan P. Schardong, André Goldenfum, Joel Avruch |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Curvas IDF Chuva Teoria dos valores extremos Mudanças climáticas Canadá |
topic |
Curvas IDF Chuva Teoria dos valores extremos Mudanças climáticas Canadá Intensity-duration-frequency curve Non-stationarity Climate change Rainfall intensities |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Intensity-duration-frequency curve Non-stationarity Climate change Rainfall intensities |
description |
Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships are traditional tools in water infrastructure planning and design. IDFs are developed under a stationarity assumption which may not be realistic, neither in the present nor in the future, under a changing climatic condition. This paper introduces a framework for generating non-stationary IDFs under climate change, assuming that probability of occurrence of quantiles changes over time. Using Extreme Value Theory, eight trend combinations in Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) parameters using time as covariate are compared with a stationary GEV, to identify the best alternative. Additionally, a modified Equidistance Quantile Matching (EQMNS) method is implemented to develop IDFs for future conditions, introducing non-stationarity where justified, based on the Global Climate Models (GCM). The methodology is applied for Moncton and Shearwater gauges in Northeast Canada. From the results, it is observed that EQMNS is able to capture the trends in the present and to translate them to estimated future rainfall intensities. Comparison of present and future IDFs strongly suggest that return period can be reduced by more than 50 years in the estimates of future rainfall intensities (e.g., historical 100-yr return period extreme rainfall may have frequency smaller than 50-yr under future conditions), raising attention to emerging risks to water infrastructure systems. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2021 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2022-01-12T04:36:53Z |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
Estrangeiro info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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article |
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publishedVersion |
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http://hdl.handle.net/10183/233993 |
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2073-4441 |
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001126616 |
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http://hdl.handle.net/10183/233993 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
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eng |
dc.relation.ispartof.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Water. Basel [Switzerland]. Vol. 13, n. 8 (Apr.-2 2021), [Article] 1008, 22 p. |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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openAccess |
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