Geopolitical Risks and International Tourist Arrivals to Turkey: a Causality Study

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Bayraktaroğlu, Engin
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: Gürsoy, Samet, Günay, Fatih, Karakuş, Yusuf
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos
Texto Completo: https://periodicos.ufjf.br/index.php/abet/article/view/34237
Resumo: This study aimed to examine the causal connection between geopolitical risks and Turkey's international tourist arrivals. The causality was tested between risk indices and foreign visitor demand on monthly data. Turkey was selected because many geopolitical risks had occurred in the last two decades and has had a terror risk named PKK for many years. The geopolitical risk indices were created from news based on the issues. The causality was tested using Toda-Yamamoto and asymmetric causality was tested using the Hatemi-J method in the period of 1998-2019. Findings of the study showed that there is unidirectional causality between global risks and tourist arrivals to Turkey, and bi-directional causality between domestic risk and tourist arrivals. Hatemi-J test results support the findings that the causality from positive shocks of risks causes negative shocks of tourist arrivals and vice versa. Herewith, it can be said that tourism demand to Turkey, in the context of foreign visitors, was affected by global or domestic geopolitical risks. This may be a sign that Turkey has a tourism-led terrorism problem targeting Turkey's tourism and economy.
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spelling Geopolitical Risks and International Tourist Arrivals to Turkey: a Causality StudyRiesgos Geopolíticos y Llegadas Turísticas Internacionales a Turquía: un Estudio de CausalidadRiscos Geopolíticos e Chegadas Turísticas Internacionais à Turquia: um Estudo de CausalidadeGeopolitical risksInternational tourist demandTourist destination imageRiesgos geopolíticosDemanda turística internacionalImagen de destino turísticoRiscos geopolíticosDemanda turísticainternacionalImagem do destino turísticoThis study aimed to examine the causal connection between geopolitical risks and Turkey's international tourist arrivals. The causality was tested between risk indices and foreign visitor demand on monthly data. Turkey was selected because many geopolitical risks had occurred in the last two decades and has had a terror risk named PKK for many years. The geopolitical risk indices were created from news based on the issues. The causality was tested using Toda-Yamamoto and asymmetric causality was tested using the Hatemi-J method in the period of 1998-2019. Findings of the study showed that there is unidirectional causality between global risks and tourist arrivals to Turkey, and bi-directional causality between domestic risk and tourist arrivals. Hatemi-J test results support the findings that the causality from positive shocks of risks causes negative shocks of tourist arrivals and vice versa. Herewith, it can be said that tourism demand to Turkey, in the context of foreign visitors, was affected by global or domestic geopolitical risks. This may be a sign that Turkey has a tourism-led terrorism problem targeting Turkey's tourism and economy.Este estudio tuvo como objetivo examinar la conexión causal entre los riesgos geopolíticos y las llegadas de turistas internacionales a Turquía. La causalidad se probó entre los índices de riesgo y la demanda de visitantes extranjeros con datos mensuales. Turquía fue seleccionada porque se habían producido muchos riesgos geopolíticos en las últimas dos décadas y ha tenido un riesgo terrorista llamado PKK durante muchos años. Los índices de riesgo geopolítico se crearon a partir de noticias basadas en los problemas. La causalidad fue probada usando Toda-Yamamoto y la causalidad asimétrica fue probada usando el método Hatemi-J en el período 1998-2019. Los resultados del estudio mostraron que existe una causalidad unidireccional entre los riesgos globales y las llegadas de turistas a Turquía, y una causalidad bidireccional entre el riesgo nacional y las llegadas de turistas. Los resultados de la prueba Hatemi-J apoyan los hallazgos de que la causalidad de los choques positivos de riesgos causa choques negativos en las llegadas de turistas y viceversa. A continuación, se puede decir que la demanda turística de Turquía, en el contexto de los visitantes extranjeros, se vio afectada por riesgos geopolíticos globales o nacionales. Esto puede ser una señal de que Turquía tiene un problema de terrorismo liderado por el turismo que tiene como objetivo el turismo y la economía de Turquía.Este estudo teve como objetivo examinar a conexão causal entre os riscos geopolíticos e as chegadas de turistas internacionais na Turquia. A causalidade foi testada entre índices de risco e demanda de visitantes estrangeiros em dados mensais. A Turquia foi selecionada porque muitos riscos geopolíticos ocorreram nas últimas duas décadas e há muitos anos o risco de terrorismo chamado PKK. Os índices de risco geopolítico foram criados a partir de notícias baseadas nas questões. A causalidade foi testada usando Toda-Yamamoto e causalidade assimétrica foi testada usando o método Hatemi-J no período de 1998-2019. Os resultados do estudo mostraram que existe uma causalidade unidirecional entre os riscos globais e as chegadas de turistas à Turquia, e uma causalidade bidirecional entre o risco doméstico e as chegadas de turistas. Os resultados do teste Hatemi-J apóiam as conclusões de que a causalidade de choques positivos de riscos causa choques negativos nas chegadas de turistas e vice-versa. Com isto, pode-se dizer que a demanda turística para a Turquia, no contexto de visitantes estrangeiros, foi afetada por riscos geopolíticos globais ou domésticos. Isso pode ser um sinal de que a Turquia tem um problema de terrorismo impulsionado pelo turismo que visa o turismo e a economia turcos.Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora/UFJF2021-10-26info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.ufjf.br/index.php/abet/article/view/3423710.5281/zenodo.5771032Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos; ABET, Vol. 11, Single Issue (2021): Current Topics in Tourism and Thematic Section: “Tourism in times of COVID-19” Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos; ABET, Vol. 11, Single Issue (2021): Current Topics in Tourism and Thematic Section: “Tourism in times of COVID-19” Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos; ABET, Vol. 11, Single Issue (2021): Current Topics in Tourism and Thematic Section: “Tourism in times of COVID-19” 2238-2925reponame:Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticosinstname:Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF)instacron:UFJFenghttps://periodicos.ufjf.br/index.php/abet/article/view/34237/23520Copyright (c) 2021 Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos - ABEThttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessBayraktaroğlu, EnginGürsoy, SametGünay, FatihKarakuş, Yusuf2024-03-22T21:22:24Zoai:periodicos.ufjf.br:article/34237Revistahttps://periodicos.ufjf.br/index.php/abet/indexPUBhttps://periodicos.ufjf.br/index.php/abet/oairevista.abet@ufjf.edu.br || thiago.pimentel@ufjf.edu.br2238-29252238-2925opendoar:2024-03-22T21:22:24Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos - Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Geopolitical Risks and International Tourist Arrivals to Turkey: a Causality Study
Riesgos Geopolíticos y Llegadas Turísticas Internacionales a Turquía: un Estudio de Causalidad
Riscos Geopolíticos e Chegadas Turísticas Internacionais à Turquia: um Estudo de Causalidade
title Geopolitical Risks and International Tourist Arrivals to Turkey: a Causality Study
spellingShingle Geopolitical Risks and International Tourist Arrivals to Turkey: a Causality Study
Bayraktaroğlu, Engin
Geopolitical risks
International tourist demand
Tourist destination image
Riesgos geopolíticos
Demanda turística internacional
Imagen de destino turístico
Riscos geopolíticos
Demanda turísticainternacional
Imagem do destino turístico
title_short Geopolitical Risks and International Tourist Arrivals to Turkey: a Causality Study
title_full Geopolitical Risks and International Tourist Arrivals to Turkey: a Causality Study
title_fullStr Geopolitical Risks and International Tourist Arrivals to Turkey: a Causality Study
title_full_unstemmed Geopolitical Risks and International Tourist Arrivals to Turkey: a Causality Study
title_sort Geopolitical Risks and International Tourist Arrivals to Turkey: a Causality Study
author Bayraktaroğlu, Engin
author_facet Bayraktaroğlu, Engin
Gürsoy, Samet
Günay, Fatih
Karakuş, Yusuf
author_role author
author2 Gürsoy, Samet
Günay, Fatih
Karakuş, Yusuf
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Bayraktaroğlu, Engin
Gürsoy, Samet
Günay, Fatih
Karakuş, Yusuf
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Geopolitical risks
International tourist demand
Tourist destination image
Riesgos geopolíticos
Demanda turística internacional
Imagen de destino turístico
Riscos geopolíticos
Demanda turísticainternacional
Imagem do destino turístico
topic Geopolitical risks
International tourist demand
Tourist destination image
Riesgos geopolíticos
Demanda turística internacional
Imagen de destino turístico
Riscos geopolíticos
Demanda turísticainternacional
Imagem do destino turístico
description This study aimed to examine the causal connection between geopolitical risks and Turkey's international tourist arrivals. The causality was tested between risk indices and foreign visitor demand on monthly data. Turkey was selected because many geopolitical risks had occurred in the last two decades and has had a terror risk named PKK for many years. The geopolitical risk indices were created from news based on the issues. The causality was tested using Toda-Yamamoto and asymmetric causality was tested using the Hatemi-J method in the period of 1998-2019. Findings of the study showed that there is unidirectional causality between global risks and tourist arrivals to Turkey, and bi-directional causality between domestic risk and tourist arrivals. Hatemi-J test results support the findings that the causality from positive shocks of risks causes negative shocks of tourist arrivals and vice versa. Herewith, it can be said that tourism demand to Turkey, in the context of foreign visitors, was affected by global or domestic geopolitical risks. This may be a sign that Turkey has a tourism-led terrorism problem targeting Turkey's tourism and economy.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-10-26
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.ufjf.br/index.php/abet/article/view/34237
10.5281/zenodo.5771032
url https://periodicos.ufjf.br/index.php/abet/article/view/34237
identifier_str_mv 10.5281/zenodo.5771032
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.ufjf.br/index.php/abet/article/view/34237/23520
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos - ABET
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos - ABET
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora/UFJF
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora/UFJF
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos; ABET, Vol. 11, Single Issue (2021): Current Topics in Tourism and Thematic Section: “Tourism in times of COVID-19”
Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos; ABET, Vol. 11, Single Issue (2021): Current Topics in Tourism and Thematic Section: “Tourism in times of COVID-19”
Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos; ABET, Vol. 11, Single Issue (2021): Current Topics in Tourism and Thematic Section: “Tourism in times of COVID-19”
2238-2925
reponame:Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos
instname:Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF)
instacron:UFJF
instname_str Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF)
instacron_str UFJF
institution UFJF
reponame_str Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos
collection Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos
repository.name.fl_str_mv Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos - Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv revista.abet@ufjf.edu.br || thiago.pimentel@ufjf.edu.br
_version_ 1798044891141373952

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